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Política Fiscal, Nível Tecnológico E Crescimento Econômico No Brasil: Teoria E Evidência Empírica

Author

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  • Luciana Cavalcante de Assis
  • Joilson Dias

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of changes in fiscal policy and in technological level over the growth economic rate in Brazil, as well as, to identify the optimal level of taxation of the economy empirically, based on the model' version of endogenous growth proposed by Barro (1990). To capture the dynamic interactions among the variables, we decided to use a vectorial auto regressive model (VAR) for the econometrics analysis, with annual data from 1951 to 2000. The main empirical results indicate that: i) shocks in the ratio public/private capital, tax burden and technological level generate cyclical effects on the GDP growth rate in Brazil; ii) the tax burden, used to finance the public expenses, it causes negative impact on the growth rate of the Brazilian economy when it surpasses the optimal level of 25% of the GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Luciana Cavalcante de Assis & Joilson Dias, 2004. "Política Fiscal, Nível Tecnológico E Crescimento Econômico No Brasil: Teoria E Evidência Empírica," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 050, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2004:050
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    File URL: http://www.anpec.org.br/encontro2004/artigos/A04A050.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    2. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    3. Rebelo, Sergio, 1991. "Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 500-521, June.
    4. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    5. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation

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