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A Corporate Income Tax Microsimulation Model for Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Chiara Bellucci

    (Ministry of Economy and Finance)

  • Silvia Carta

    (Ministry of Economy and Finance)

  • Sara De Tollis

    (Ministry of Economy and Finance)

  • Federica Di Giacomo

    (Ministry of Economy and Finance)

  • Marco Manzo

    (Ministry of Economy and Finance)

  • Daniela Bucci

    (Soluzioni per il Sistema Economico S.p.A. - Sose)

  • Donato Curto

    (Soluzioni per il Sistema Economico S.p.A. - Sose)

  • Fabrizio De Grandis

    (Soluzioni per il Sistema Economico S.p.A. - Sose)

  • Francesca Sica

    (Soluzioni per il Sistema Economico S.p.A. - Sose)

Abstract

The CITSIM-DF is the corporate tax microsimulation model developed by the Department of Finance in order to estimate the heterogeneous impact of changes in fiscal regulation on average effective tax rates, both in terms of financial and distributional effects. One of the main innovations of the model is the inclusion of forecasts on future economic trends into the simulations, by projecting forward the main fiscal and financial variables. Currently projections are based, at macro level, on national accounts and official projections reflected in the documents of economy and finance. In the next future, the model will be further developed in a now-casting perspective, incorporating in the projections, at micro level, the most recent administrative data available. The model proposes also a new methodology for disentangling investments and historical cost broken by type of asset (buildings, machinery and equipment). CITSIM-DF is based on a unique dataset that integrates administrative data derived from tax returns and financial statements for corporations.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiara Bellucci & Silvia Carta & Sara De Tollis & Federica Di Giacomo & Marco Manzo & Daniela Bucci & Donato Curto & Fabrizio De Grandis & Francesca Sica, 2023. "A Corporate Income Tax Microsimulation Model for Italy," Working Papers wp2023-17, Ministry of Economy and Finance, Department of Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:ahg:wpaper:wp2023-17
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Radulescu, Doina & Stimmelmayr, Michael, 2010. "The impact of the 2008 German corporate tax reform: A dynamic CGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 454-467, January.
    2. Keshab Bhattarai & Jonathan Haughton & Michael Head & David G Tuerck, 2017. "Simulating Corporate Income Tax Reform Proposals with a Dynamic CGE Model," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(5), pages 20-35, May.
    3. Ernesto Zangari, 2020. "An economic assessment of the evolution of the corporate tax system in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1291, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax treatment of losses; Allowance for corporate equity; Corporate taxation; Microsimulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies

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