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Eliciting Information on Uncertainty from Heterogeneous Expert Panels: Attributing U.S. Foodborne Pathogen Illness to Food Consumption

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  • Hoffmann, Sandra A.
  • Fischbeck, Paul S.
  • Krupnick, Alan J.
  • McWilliams, Michael

Abstract

Decision analysts are frequently called on to help inform decision-makers in situations where there is considerable uncertainty. In such situations, expert elicitation of parameter values is frequently used to supplement more conventional research. This paper develops a formal protocol for expert elicitation with large, heterogeneous expert panels. We use formal survey methods to take advantage of variation in individual expert uncertainty and heterogeneity among experts as a means of quantifying and comparing sources of uncertainty about parameters of interest. We illustrate use of this protocol with an expert elicitation on the distribution of U.S. foodborne illness from each of 11 major foodborne pathogens to the consumption of one of 11 categories of food. Results show how multiple measures of uncertainty, made feasible by use of a large panel of experts, can help identify which of several types of risk management actions may be most appropriate.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoffmann, Sandra A. & Fischbeck, Paul S. & Krupnick, Alan J. & McWilliams, Michael, 2006. "Eliciting Information on Uncertainty from Heterogeneous Expert Panels: Attributing U.S. Foodborne Pathogen Illness to Food Consumption," Discussion Papers 10444, Resources for the Future.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:rffdps:10444
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.10444
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Ine H. J. Van Der Fels‐Klerx & Louis H. J. Goossens & Helmut W. Saatkamp & Suzan H. S. Horst, 2002. "Elicitation of Quantitative Data from a Heterogeneous Expert Panel: Formal Process and Application in Animal Health," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(1), pages 67-81, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Katarina D.M. Pintar & Kate M. Thomas & Tanya Christidis & Ainsley Otten & Andrea Nesbitt & Barbara Marshall & Frank Pollari & Matt Hurst & Andre Ravel, 2017. "A Comparative Exposure Assessment of Campylobacter in Ontario, Canada," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(4), pages 677-715, April.
    2. Yawson, Robert M. & Kuzma, Jennifer, 2010. "Evidence review and experts’ opinion on consumer acceptance of agrifood nanotechnology," MPRA Paper 40807, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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