IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332973.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Potential impacts of changes in the Brazil’s New Forest Code on Agriculture, 2010 to 2030: an integrated analysis based on the GLOBIOM-Brazil and TERM-Br

Author

Listed:
  • Santos, Mari Aparecida dos
  • Ferreira Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza
  • Vieira Filho, José Eustáquio Ribeiro
  • Ywata, Alexandre Xavier de Carvalho

Abstract

The objective of this research was to compare the economic impacts of changes in the New Forest Code on the economic sectors and regions of Brazil. There are three possible scenarios: 1) restrict the land use in case of partial use of the mechanism of Environmental Reserves Quotas (CRA in portuguese); 2) restrict the land use in case of disapproval of the compensation mechanism (CRA); and 3) land use restriction is related to disregarding the amnesty of fines and sanctions granted by Law n °12.651 / 2012. The data regarding the restrictions of different scenarios is integrated to the general equilibrium models for Brazil, TERM-BR and GLOBIOM-Brazil.The results showed that the value of the macroeconomic aggregates, in the accumulated period from 2010 to 2030, compared to the baseline, there was a drop in GDP of 0.12%, 0.14% and 051% in scenarios 1, 2 and 3 , respectively. As there was also a decline in consumption, government and import (vol.) , which decreased of 0.1% (scenarios 1 and 2) and around 0.5% (scenario 3), investment decreased by 0.8% , 0.8% and 3.1% in the respective scenarios 1,2 and 3. The percentage decrease in real salary higher than in consumption, which there was a reduction of 0.3% (scenarios 1 and 2) and 1 , 2% (scenario 3). Exports increased by 0.4% in the first and second scenario, while in the third scenario the increase is close to 1.9%. The downturn in the domestic market puts pressure on the agro-export sectors for commercialization in the international market. In the first scenario, the region most affected economically was that of Pará-TO, with a drop of 2.5% in regional GDP. In the second scenario, the state of Mato Grosso showed the greatest drop in GDP, at 4.5%. In the third scenario, Goias was the most affected, with a fall of 4.3% in GDP. In addition, it was observed that soybean and cattle raising are the activities most negatively impacted by such changes in environmental policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Santos, Mari Aparecida dos & Ferreira Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza & Vieira Filho, José Eustáquio Ribeiro & Ywata, Alexandre Xavier de Carvalho, 2018. "Potential impacts of changes in the Brazil’s New Forest Code on Agriculture, 2010 to 2030: an integrated analysis based on the GLOBIOM-Brazil and TERM-Br," Conference papers 332973, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332973
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332973/files/9077.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ferreira-Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza & Horridge, Mark, 2012. "Endogenous Land Use and Supply, and Food Security in Brazil," Conference papers 332215, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho & Luis Ribera & Mark Horridge, 2015. "Deforestation Control and Agricultural Supply in Brazil," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(2), pages 589-601.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Silva, Felipe & Fulginiti, Lilyan & Perrin, Richard, 2016. "Trade-off between amazon forest and agriculture in Brazil – shadow price and their substitution estimative for 2006," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235800, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. William Wills & Emilio Lebre La Rovere & Carolina Grottera & Giovanna Ferrazzo Naspolini & Gaëlle Le Treut & F. Ghersi & Julien Lefèvre & Carolina Burle Schmidt Dubeux, 2022. "Economic and social effectiveness of carbon pricing schemes to meet Brazilian NDC targets," Post-Print hal-03500923, HAL.
    3. Ferreira-Filho, Joaquim Bento & Horridge, Mark & Diniz, Tiago Barbosa, 2015. "The New Forest Code and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions in Brazil," Conference papers 332654, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Ferreira Filho, Joaquim Bento & Freitas Vian, Carlos, 2015. "The Evolving Role of Large and Middle Size Farms in Brazilian Agriculture," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212026, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Ferreira-Filho, Joaquim Bento & Stocco, Leandro, 2019. "Closing the Yield Gap in Livestock Production in Brazil: New Results and Emissions Insights," Conference papers 330190, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Jonathan Gonçalves Da Silva & Joaquim Bento De Souza Ferreira Filho, 2016. "Climate Change, Agriculture And Livestock Intensification In Brazil: The Borlaug Hypothesis," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 184, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. Augusto Mussi Alvim & Eduardo Rodrigues Sanguinet, 2021. "Climate Change Policies and the Carbon Tax Effect on Meat and Dairy Industries in Brazil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-20, August.
    8. Ferreira, Marcelo D P & Feres, Jose, 2018. "The Role of Climate Risk on Land Allocation in Brazilian Amazon," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274436, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Bladimir Carrillo & Danyelle K. Branco & Juan C. Trujillo & João E. Lima, 2019. "The Externalities of a Deforestation Control Policy in Infant Health: Evidence from Brazil," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 369-400.
    10. Ferreira, M. & Feres, J.G., 2018. "Farm Size and Productive Efficiency in Brazilian Amazon," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277289, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Queiroz, P. & Silva, F.D.F. & Fulginiti, L., 2018. "How did technical change affect land use in Brazilian agriculture?," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277318, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Diniz, Tiago & Ferreira-Filho, Joaquim Bento & Horridge, Mark, 2018. "Economic and regional impacts of investments in electricity generation in Brazil," Conference papers 332933, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    13. Ferreira, Marcelo Dias Paes & Féres, José Gustavo, 2020. "Farm size and Land use efficiency in the Brazilian Amazon," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    14. Ferreira-Filho, Joaquim Bento & Pinto, Luis Fernando Guedes & Faria, Vinicius Guidotti & Sparovek, Guerd, 2018. "Environmental and Welfare Impacts of Deforestation Reduction in Brazil," Conference papers 332925, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    15. Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho & Mark Horridge, 2021. "Biome Composition in Deforestation Deterrence and GHG Emissions in Brazil," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Peter Dixon & Joseph Francois & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (ed.), POLICY ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY A Festschrift Celebrating Thomas Hertel, chapter 13, pages 419-436, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Felipe Figueiredo Silva & Lilyan E. Fulginiti & Richard K. Perrin & Marcelo Jose Braga, 2022. "The increasing opportunity cost of sequestering CO2 in the Brazilian Amazon forest," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 439-460, February.
    17. Glyn Wittwer & Mark Horridge, 2018. "Prefectural Representation of the Regions of China in a Bottom-up CGE Model: SinoTERM365," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 3(2), pages 178-213, December.
    18. Ferreira, J.B. De Souza Filho & De Faria, V. Guidotti & Guedes Pinto, L.F. & Sparovek, G., 2018. "Economic and Social Impacts of Deforestation reduction in Brazil," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277084, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Silva, F.D.F. & Fulginiti, L. & Perrin, R., 2018. "Agricultural productivity and forest preservation in the Brazilian Amazon," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277167, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Terciane Sabadini Carvalho & Edson Paulo Domingues, 2016. "Controlling Deforestation In The Brazilian Amazon: Regional Economic Impacts And Land-Use Change," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 192, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332973. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.