Can Structural Change Explain The Decrease In Returns To Technical Analysis?

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Can Structural Change Explain The Decrease In Returns To Technical Analysis?

Author Info

Kidd, Willis V.
Brorsen, B. Wade

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B Wade Brorsen

Abstract

Practioners Abstract: Returns to managed futures funds and Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) have decreased dramatically during the last several years. Since these funds overwhelmingly use technical analysis, this research examines futures prices to determine if there is evidence of a structural change in futures price movements that could explain the reduction in fund returns. Bootstrap tests are used to test significance of a change in statistics related to daily returns, close-to-open changes, breakaway gaps, and serial correlation. Results indicate that several statistics have changed across a broad range of commodities indicating futures price fluctuations have changed. The lower price volatility, decreased price reaction time, and decreased serial correlation may partly explain the lower returns from technical analysis.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management in its series 2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri with number 19059.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ags:ncrtwo:19059

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Web page: http://www.agebb.missouri.edu/ncrext/ncr134/

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Keywords: Marketing;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Good, Darrel L. & Martines-Filho, Joao & Irwin, Scott H., 2002. "The Pricing Performance Of Market Advisory Services In Corn And Soybeans Over 1995-2000," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14784, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Irwin, Scott H. & Martines-Filho, Joao & Good, Darrel L., 2003. "The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans Over 1995-2001," AgMAS Project Research Reports 37510, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
- Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Martines-Filho, Joao & Hagedorn, Lewis A., 2005. "The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans over 1995-2003," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14775, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
- Irwin, Scott H. & Martines-Filho, Joao & Good, Darrel L., 2003. "The Pricing Performance Of Market Advisory Services In Corn And Soybeans Over 1995-2001," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14773, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
- Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Martines-Filho, Joao & Batts, Ryan M., 2006. "The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans Over 1995-2004," AgMAS Project Research Reports 37513, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]

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