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Health Check der EU-Agrarpolitik - Auswirkungen der Legislativvorschläge

Author

Listed:
  • Gomann, Horst
  • Heiden, Michael
  • Kleinhanss, Werner
  • Kreins, Peter
  • Ledebur, Oliver von
  • Offermann, Frank
  • Osterburg, Bernhard
  • Salamon, Petra

Abstract

Zusammenfassung : Die Europäische Kommission hat Mitte Mai 2008 Legislativvorschläge zum Health Check (HC) der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik (GAP) vorgelegt. Das Ziel der durchgeführten Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Verbraucherschutz ist es, die Wirkungen der HC-Vorschläge mit Hilfe des Modellverbundes der vTI-Agrarökonomie sowie mit einer statistischen Auswertung des EU-Testbetriebsnetzes (FADN) zu analysieren. Die Auswirkungen der HC-Vorschläge wurden in einer komparativ-statischen Betrachtung gegenüber einem Referenzszenario im Zieljahr 2015 analysiert. Nach den Modellberechnungen wird die Milcherzeugung in Deutschland nach Auslaufen der Quotenregelung um 6 % ausgedehnt. Dies impliziert ein Absinken des Marktpreises um 8 %. Die Ausdehnung erfolgt vor allem in Regionen mit hoher Produktionsdichte, so dass sich der regionale Konzentrationsprozess fortsetzt. Die Betriebseinkommen gehen im Bundesdurchschnitt um 5-7 % zurück; in Milchviehbetrieben um ca. 10 %. Höhere Einbußen sind durch die stärkere Kürzung der Direktzahlungen infolge der progressiven Modulation in Großbetrieben zu erwarten. Insgesamt stellen die HC-Vorschläge eine zu bewältigende Herausforderung für die deutsche Landwirtschaft dar, wenn die Möglichkeiten zur Ausgestaltung der Begleitmaßnahmen auf nationaler Ebene genutzt werden. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Summary: In May 2008, the European Commission presented legislative proposals for a Health Check (HC) of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The goal of the study, on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection, is to analyse the impacts of the HC proposal with the help of the Modelling Network of agricultural economics institutes of vTI, as well as with a statistical evaluation of the EU-wide Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN). The impacts of the HC proposal are analysed within a comparative-static approach vs. a reference scenario in the target year 2015. According to the model results, milk production will expand by about 6 % in Germany after elimination of the milk quota regulations. This implies a decline in the market price of 8 %. The expansion of production occurs particularly in high density production areas, so that the regional concentration process continues. Farm income drops on average of 5 %, in dairy farms by about 10 %. Significant income losses can be expected for large farms due to above-average reductions in direct payments as a result of progressive modulation. Overall, the HC proposals present a challenge that German agriculture can cope with, if the possibilities for shaping the accompanying measures at the national level are used accordingly.

Suggested Citation

  • Gomann, Horst & Heiden, Michael & Kleinhanss, Werner & Kreins, Peter & Ledebur, Oliver von & Offermann, Frank & Osterburg, Bernhard & Salamon, Petra, 2008. "Health Check der EU-Agrarpolitik - Auswirkungen der Legislativvorschläge," Thünen Working Paper 102725, Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut (vTI), Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:jhimwp:102725
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.102725
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Offermann, Frank & Kleinhanss, Werner & Huettel, Silke & Kuepker, Bernd, 2005. "Assessing the 2003 CAP Reform Impacts on German Agriculture Using the Farm Group Model FARMIS," 89th Seminar, February 2-5, 2005, Parma, Italy 234635, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Salamon, Petra & von Ledebur, Ernst-Oliver, 2005. "The impact of the mid-term review on the German agricultural sector," Arbeitsberichte aus der vTI-Agrarökonomie 04/2005, Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries.
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    1. Britz, Wolfgang & Gocht, Alexander & Domínguez, Ignacio Pérez & Jansson, Torbjörn & Grosche, Stephanie-Carolin & Zhao, Na, 2012. "EU-Wide (Regional and Farm Level) Effects of Premium Decoupling and Harmonisation Following the Health Check Reform," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 61(1).
    2. Britz, Wolfgang & Gocht, Alexander & Domínguez, Ignacio Pérez & Jansson, Torbjörn & Grosche, Stephanie-Carolin & Zhao, Na, 2012. "EU-Wide (Regional and Farm Level) Effects of Premium Decoupling and Harmonisation Following the Health Check Reform," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 61(01), pages 1-13, February.
    3. Tietz, Andreas, 2010. "Auswirkungen von Health Check und EU-Konjunkturprogramm auf die ländlichen Entwicklungsprogramme der deutschen Bundesländer," Thünen Working Paper 102729, Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut (vTI), Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries.
    4. Kreins, Peter & Heidecke, Claudia & Goemann, Horst & Hirt, Ulrike & Wendland, Frank, 2010. "Möglichkeiten Und Grenzen Der Politikanalyse Zur Umsetzung Der Wasserrahmenrichtlinie -- Anwendung Eines Hydro-Ökonomischen Modellverbundes Für Das Weser Einzugsgebiet," 50th Annual Conference, Braunschweig, Germany, September 29-October 1, 2010 93938, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    5. Kreins, P. & Heidecke, C. & Gömann, H. & Hirt, U. & Wendland, F., 2011. "Möglichkeiten und Grenzen der wissenschaftlichen Politikanalyse zur Umsetzung der Wasserrahmenrichtlinie – Anwendung eines hydro-ökonomischen Modellverbundes für das Weser Einzugsgebiet," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 46, March.

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