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A Bouncing Ball: Long-Run Cyclical Instability in the Sri Lanka Rubber Industry

Author

Listed:
  • Etherington, Dan M.
  • Premachandra, W. M.

Abstract

Data on the age d1str1button and yields of Sri Lanka rubber are used to generate forecasts of rubber production based on alternative replantmgpohcies. Such pro1ect1ons do not take mto account short-term fluctuations caused by weather or responses to changes in producer pnces. Most of the replantmg policies result m long-run cychcal mstabihty m planting and production. Contrary to other studies, the results suggest that rubber output levels will decrease steadily over the next 10 years before starting to recover. The study also suggests that there 1s a substantial gap between productive capacity and hkely output levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Etherington, Dan M. & Premachandra, W. M., 1987. "A Bouncing Ball: Long-Run Cyclical Instability in the Sri Lanka Rubber Industry," 1987 Occasional Paper Series No. 4 197320, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaaeo4:197320
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.197320
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Etherington, Dan M., 1977. "A Stochastic Model For The Optimal Replacement Of Rubber Trees," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 21(1), pages 1-19, April.
    2. D.M. Etherington, 1977. "A Stochastic Model For The Optimal Replacement Of Rubber Trees," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 21(1), pages 40-58, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

    Production Economics;

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