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A Stochastic Analysis of Selected Drought Preparedness Strategies in NSW

Author

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  • Tapp, Nicola
  • Milham, Nick
  • Douglas, Bob
  • Hoadley, Jim

Abstract

Since July 1993, the financial and risk effects of drought management strategies for farmers have been the subject of a study by CARE (UNE)t NSW Agriculture and the WADA. In this study the relative effectiveness of investing in different forms of reserves (including lEDs/FMBs and feed) is being evaluated in a whole-farm stochastic budgeting framework. The approach is to simulate the post-tax financial performancc of regionally-based farm models under alternative investment scenarios over a 4-ycar sequence of random climatic events. The parameters of the models and their functional relationships arc derived from historical records and consensus group data. In this paper, some preliminary findings arc presented and discussed. These findings arc interpreted in terms of both their farm management and policy implications. Attention is also given to the strengths and weaknesses of the modelling technology and the benefits of the consensus group approach. It is noted that benefits arc also derived simply from the process of conducting drought research in that it encourages farmers and policy makers to carefully consider the range of issues associated with drought management.

Suggested Citation

  • Tapp, Nicola & Milham, Nick & Douglas, Bob & Hoadley, Jim, 1995. "A Stochastic Analysis of Selected Drought Preparedness Strategies in NSW," 1995 Conference (39th), February 14-16, 1995, Perth, Australia 171126, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aare95:171126
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.171126
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/171126/files/1995-10-12-13.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Deranie, Jackson & Thompson, David & Hoadley, Jim & Tapp, Nicola, 1994. "A Stochastic Analysis of Drought Management Strategies in The Western Division of New South Wales," 1994 Conference (38th), February 8-10, 1994, Wellington, New Zealand 148264, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patton, Dean A. & Milthorpe, P.L. & Wynne, M. & Honeysett, B.M., 2000. "Evaluation of forage shrub plantations as a drought preparedness strategy for landholders in the Central-west of NSW," 2000 Conference (44th), January 23-25, 2000, Sydney, Australia 123716, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.

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