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The Potential Economic Impact of Avian Flu Pandemic on Taiwan

Author

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  • Chang, Ching-Cheng
  • Lee, Duu-Hwa
  • Lin, Hsin-Chun
  • Hsu, Shih-Shun

Abstract

This study analyzes the potential consequences of an outbreak of avian influenza (H5N1) on Taiwan¡¦s macro economy and individual industries. Both the Input-Output (IO) Analysis Model and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model are used to simulate the possible damage brought by lowering domestic consumption, export, and labor supply. The simulation results indicates that if the disease is confined within the poultry sector, then the impact on real GDP is around -0.1%~-0.4%. Once it becomes a human-to-human pandemic, the IO analysis suggests that the potential impacts on real GDP would be as much as -4.2%~-5.9% while labor demand would decrease 4.9%~6.4%. In the CGE analysis, which allows for resource mobility and substitutions through price adjustments, the real GDP and labor demand would contract 2.0%~2.4% and 2.2%~2.4%, respectively, and bringing down consumer prices by 3%. As for the individual sector, the outbreak will not only damage the poultry sector and its upstream and downstream industries, but also affect the service sectors including wholesale, retail, trade, air transportation, restaurants, as well as healthcare services. These results can be used to support public investment in animal disease control measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Ching-Cheng & Lee, Duu-Hwa & Lin, Hsin-Chun & Hsu, Shih-Shun, 2007. "The Potential Economic Impact of Avian Flu Pandemic on Taiwan," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon 9803, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea07:9803
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.9803
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    Cited by:

    1. Sungjo Hong & Seok-Hwan Choi, 2021. "The Urban Characteristics of High Economic Resilient Neighborhoods during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case of Suwon, South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-39, April.
    2. Betarelli Junior, Admir Antonio & Faria, Weslem Rodrigues & Proque, Andressa Lemes & Perobelli, Fernando Salgueiro & de Almeida Vale, Vinicius, 2021. "COVID-19, public agglomerations and economic effects: Assessing the recovery time of passenger transport services in Brazil," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 254-272.
    3. Rahmiye Figen Ceylan & Burhan Ozkan & Esra Mulazimogullari, 2020. "Historical evidence for economic effects of COVID-19," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(6), pages 817-823, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Livestock Production/Industries;

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