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Sixty Billion Gallons by 2030: Economic and Agricultural Impacts of Ethanol and Biodiesel Expansion

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Author Info

  • Torre Ugarte, Daniel de la
  • English, Burton C.
  • Jensen, Kimberly L.

Abstract

Agriculture is well positioned as a feedstock source because the fuels can be utilized with current engine technologies and are compatible with the current distribution infrastructure. Commercialization of cellulosic to ethanol technology will enable fuels to be derived from a diverse portfolio of feedstocks from numerous regions of the country. The levels of ethanol production analyzed are 10, 30, and 60 billion gallons of ethanol annually by 2010, 2020 and 2030, respectively. Impacts of producing 1 billion gallons of biodiesel production by 2012 and 1.6 billion gallons by 2030 are also projected. Overall, for the period 2007 to 2030, the estimated accumulated gains in net farm income are over $210 billion; and the accumulated potential savings in government payments are estimated to be $150 billion. Due to the geographic decentralization of the production of feedstock, economic gains are projected to accrue to the majority of regions of the country. Significant expansion beyond 60 billion gallons per year would likely require expansion of the region suitable for the production of bioenergy crops, ability to convert other pastureland (beyond cropland in pasture) into energy crops; allowing CRP acreage to be used in feedstock production, increasing short-rotation wood crops in the Northeast and Northwest regions, increased yields above those assumed in the analysis, and/or increasing the efficiency of cellulosic conversion. Further research should examine the agricultural, environmental, and economic impacts of one or more these factors changing.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN with number 9709.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea07:9709

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Keywords: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

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Cited by:
  1. Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) & Hart, Chad E., 2009. "Impact of Biofuel Industry Expansion on Grain Utilization and Distribution: Preliminary Results of Iowa Grain and Biofuel Survey," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46847, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  2. Mooney, Daniel F. & Roberts, Roland K. & English, Burton C. & Larson, James A. & Tyler, Donald D., 2010. "Is Switchgrass Yield Response to Nitrogen Fertilizer Dynamic? Implications for Profitability and Sustainability at the Farm Level," 2010 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2010, Orlando, Florida 57623, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  3. Larson, James A., 2008. "Risk and uncertainty at the farm level," Transition to a Bio Economy Conferences, Risk, Infrastructure and Industry Evolution Conference, June 24-25, 2008, Berkeley, California 48728, Farm Foundation.
  4. Larson, James A. & Mooney, Daniel F. & English, Burton C. & Tyler, Donald D., 2010. "Cost Analysis of Alternative Harvest and Storage Methods for Switchgrass in the Southeastern U.S," 2010 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2010, Orlando, Florida 56518, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  5. Okwo, Adaora & Thomas, Valerie M., 2014. "Biomass feedstock contracts: Role of land quality and yield variability in near term feasibility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 67-80.
  6. Lynes, Melissa K. & Bergtold, Jason S. & Williams, Jeffery R. & Fewell, Jason E., 2012. "Determining Farmers’ Willingness-To-Grow Cellulosic Biofuel Feedstocks on Agricultural Land," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124777, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  7. Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Aklesso & Swinton, Scott M. & Izaurralde, R. CĂ©sar & Manowitz, David H. & Zhang, Xuesong, 2013. "Maintaining environmental quality while expanding biomass production: Sub-regional U.S. policy simulations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 518-531.
  8. Elena G. Irwin & Andrew M. Isserman & Maureen Kilkenny & Mark D. Partridge, 2010. "A Century of Research on Rural Development and Regional Issues," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(2), pages 522-553.
  9. Blanco, Luisa & Isenhouer, Michelle, 2010. "Powering America: The impact of ethanol production in the Corn Belt states," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1228-1234, November.
  10. Lee, Young-Jae & Kennedy, P. Lynn, 2008. "An Analysis As To The Causal Relationship Between Bioethanol Expansion And Agricultural Crop Acreage Allocation In The United States," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6343, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  11. Guerrero, Bridget L. & Johnson, Jeffrey W. & Amosson, Stephen H. & Johnson, Phillip N. & Segarra, Eduardo & Surles, James, 2011. "Ethanol Production in the Southern High Plains of Texas: Impacts on the Economy and Scarce Water Resources," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 41(1).
  12. Christian Langpap & JunJie Wu, 2011. "Potential Environmental Impacts of Increased Reliance on Corn-Based Bioenergy," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 49(2), pages 147-171, June.
  13. Mooney, Daniel F. & Roberts, Roland K. & English, Burton C. & Tyler, Donald D. & Larson, James A., 2008. "Switchgrass Production in Marginal Environments: A Comparative Economic Analysis across Four West Tennessee Landscapes," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6403, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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