Predicting Developments In Organic Eu Markets – Are The Competitive Patterns In The Danish Case Useful?

The organic market in Denmark is no longer a niche market as it was in the late 1980s. The development has followed the typical pattern for diffusion of innovations and by 2002 the market supply seemed to have surpassed the equilibrium supply by around 30% and a potential adjustment is expected in years to come. During the period 1987-2002 the development in the organic industry underwent dramatic changes. In the beginning many small new businesses dominated the area. Presently, there is a remarkable concentration of cooperative monopolies and oligopolies from the conventional industry dominating entire industry.In general, Denmark can be regarded as a frontrunner in organic development. Therefore, important clues concerning the development in other EU countries can be found, and the following points are analysed to evaluate if similar developments can be expected. Can the Danish diffusion path for organic development be expected in other countries? Will the supply in other EU markets also surpass market equilibrium? Are the Danish experiences with respect to policy choices and power-play of dominant players in processing and distribution industry of general relevance? Do the maturity gains and potential observed in the Danish organic industry apply to other markets? Is increased international trade beneficial?