A Bass Difussion Model Analysis in a Marketing Approach on the Mobile Phone Market

The idea in forecasting the adoption of new products is to serve the vision of what is likely to happen with the demand of new technologies on the mobile phone market. The purpose of this paper is to use one of Frank Bass’ mathematical models showing the theory of diffusion of a new technology on the mobile phone market and to show how it can be applied to forecast the number of the new adopters, on the one hand, and how long it will take to achieve the peak adoption curve, on the other hand. This will be used to predict and track the technology life cycle and therefore the product life cycle. Through this research we try to find prompt answers to the question - ‘How many consumers will likely adopt the new technology and when?’ The more persons adopt the new technology, the more the potential adopters see the increased value brought by the product and they also adopt it in their turn. The effects of consumers’ interaction with each other (‘word-of-mouth’ type) depend on the time of adoption, being relatively strong during the early and late stages of the product life cycle. During the growth of the adoption period, the number of innovators decreases, while the number of imitators increases.