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A Hidden Markov-Modulated Jump Diffusion Model for European Option Pricing

In: Hidden Markov Models in Finance

Author

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  • Tak Kuen Siu

    (Cass Business School, City University London
    Macquarie University)

Abstract

The valuation of a European-style contingent claim is discussed in a hidden Markov regime-switching jump-diffusion market, where the evolution of a hidden economic state process over time is described by a continuous-time, finite-state, hidden Markov chain. A two-stage procedure is used to discuss the option valuation problem. Firstly filtering theory is employed to transform the original market with hidden quantities into a filtered market with complete observations. Then a generalized version of the Esscher transform based on a Doléan-Dade stochastic exponential is employed to select a pricing kernel in the filtered market. A partial-differential-integral equation for the price of a European-style option is presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Tak Kuen Siu, 2014. "A Hidden Markov-Modulated Jump Diffusion Model for European Option Pricing," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Rogemar S. Mamon & Robert J. Elliott (ed.), Hidden Markov Models in Finance, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 185-209, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:isochp:978-1-4899-7442-6_8
    DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4899-7442-6_8
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Godin, Frédéric & Trottier, Denis-Alexandre, 2021. "Option pricing in regime-switching frameworks with the Extended Girsanov Principle," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 116-129.
    2. Tak Kuen Siu & Robert J. Elliott, 2019. "Hedging Options In A Doubly Markov-Modulated Financial Market Via Stochastic Flows," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(08), pages 1-41, December.
    3. Fan, Kun & Shen, Yang & Siu, Tak Kuen & Wang, Rongming, 2015. "Pricing annuity guarantees under a double regime-switching model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 62-78.
    4. Godin, Frédéric & Lai, Van Son & Trottier, Denis-Alexandre, 2019. "Option pricing under regime-switching models: Novel approaches removing path-dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 130-142.
    5. Frédéric Godiny & Van Son Lai & Denis-Alexandre Trottier, 2019. "Option Pricing Under Regime-Switching Models: Novel Approaches Removing Path-Dependence," Working Papers 2019-014, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    6. Rodwell Kufakunesu & Calisto Guambe & Lesedi Mabitsela, 2018. "Risk-based optimal portfolio of an insurer with regime switching and noisy memory," Papers 1808.04604, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2019.
    7. Robert J. Elliott & Tak Kuen Siu, 2023. "Hedging options in a hidden Markov‐switching local‐volatility model via stochastic flows and a Monte‐Carlo method," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 925-950, July.
    8. Siu, Tak Kuen, 2016. "A self-exciting threshold jump–diffusion model for option valuation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 168-193.

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