Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Recognizing the Limits of Economists' Knowledge, from Imperfect Knowledge Economics: Exchange Rates and Risk

In: Imperfect Knowledge Economics: Exchange Rates and Risk

Contents:

Author Info

  • Roman Frydman

    (New York University)

  • Michael D. Goldberg

    (University of New Hampshire)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Posing a major challenge to economic orthodoxy, Imperfect Knowledge Economics asserts that exact models of purposeful human behavior are beyond the reach of economic analysis. Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue that the longstanding empirical failures of conventional economic models stem from their futile efforts to make exact predictions about the consequences of rational, self-interested behavior. Such predictions, based on mechanistic models of human behavior, disregard the importance of individual creativity and unforeseeable sociopolitical change. Scientific though these explanations may appear, they usually fail to predict how markets behave. And, the authors contend, recent behavioral models of the market are no less mechanistic than their conventional counterparts: they aim to generate exact predictions of "irrational" human behavior. Frydman and Goldberg offer a long-overdue response to the shortcomings of conventional economic models. Drawing attention to the inherent limits of economists' knowledge, they introduce a new approach to economic analysis: Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE). IKE rejects exact quantitative predictions of individual decisions and market outcomes in favor of mathematical models that generate only qualitative predictions of economic change. Using the foreign exchange market as a testing ground for IKE, this book sheds new light on exchange-rate and risk-premium movements, which have confounded conventional models for decades. Offering a fresh way to think about markets and representing a potential turning point in economics, Imperfect Knowledge Economics will be essential reading for economists, policymakers, and professional investors.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://press.princeton.edu/chapters/p8537.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    as in new window

    This chapter was published in: Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg Imperfect Knowledge Economics: Exchange Rates and Risk, , pages , 2007.

    This item is provided by Princeton University Press in its series Introductory Chapters with number 8537-1.

    Handle: RePEc:pup:chapts:8537-1

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://press.princeton.edu

    Related research

    Keywords: knowledge; economic models; predictions; rational self-interest; markets; decisions; exchange rates; risk premiums;

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. K. Vela Velupillai, 2012. ""Dear Professor Mankiw..."- Reflections on Four Decades of Learning and Teaching Macroeconomics," ASSRU Discussion Papers 1206, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.
    2. Robert Kelm, 2010. "The Exchange Rate and Two Price Inflations in Poland in the Period 1999-2009. Do Globalization and Balassa-Samuelson Effect Matter?," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 2(4), pages 315-349, September.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pup:chapts:8537-1

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ann Ambrose).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.