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Mittelfristige Beschäftigungsprognose für Österreich und die Bundesländer. Berufliche und sektorale Veränderungen 2010 bis 2016

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Horvath
  • Ulrike Huemer

    (WIFO)

  • Kurt Kratena
  • Helmut Mahringer

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Als Basis für eine mittelfristige Schätzung des Qualifizierungsbedarfs erarbeitet das WIFO regelmäßig Prognosen der Beschäftigungsentwicklung nach Berufsgruppen, Branchen und Geschlecht. Dazu wurde eine modellgestützte Prognoseinfrastruktur aufgebaut. Die aktuelle Berechnung deckt den Zeitraum 2010 bis 2016 ab und bietet eine detaillierte Prognose für 38 Branchen- und 57 Berufsgruppen. Auf Ebene der neun Bundesländer werden neben 38 Branchen 27 Berufsgruppen unterschieden. Dabei zeigt sich bei einem Wachstum der Gesamtbeschäftigung von knapp 1% pro Jahr ein deutlicher Trend zu höheren Qualifikationsanforderungen und zu dienstleistungs- und kundenorientierten Tätigkeiten. Während einfache Tätigkeiten in der Sachgüterproduktion an Bedeutung verlieren, wächst die Nachfrage nach Hilfstätigkeiten im Dienstleistungsbereich.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Horvath & Ulrike Huemer & Kurt Kratena & Helmut Mahringer, 2012. "Mittelfristige Beschäftigungsprognose für Österreich und die Bundesländer. Berufliche und sektorale Veränderungen 2010 bis 2016," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 43873, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:43873
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oliver Fritz & Gerhard Streicher, 2005. "Measuring Changes in Regional Competitiveness over Time. A Shift-Share Regression Exercise," WIFO Working Papers 243, WIFO.
    2. Kurt Kratena & Michael Wüger, 2006. "PROMETEUS: Ein multisektorales makroökonomisches Modell der österreichischen Wirtschaft," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 79(3), pages 187-205, March.
    3. Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in 't, 2009. "QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 222-233, January.
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    1. Michael Mesch, 2016. "Erwerbs- und Einkommenschancen im Kontext der intergenerationellen Einkommenspersistenz," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 42(4), pages 617-664.

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