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Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures: Eight Long-Range Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Hillebrand, Evan

    (University of Kentucky)

  • Closson, Stacy

    (University of Kentucky)

Abstract

This book presents eight varied scenarios of possible global futures, emphasizing the interconnectedness of three drivers of change: energy prices, economic growth, and geopolitics. Other published global future scenarios focus on only one of these factors, viewing, for example, economic growth as unaffected by energy prices or energy prices in isolation from geopolitical conditions. In this book, Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson offer a new approach to scenario construction that acknowledges the codependence of these key drivers and integrates qualitative analysis with a quantitative model. The eight scenarios represent possible combinations of high or low energy prices, strong or weak economic growth, and global harmony or disharmony across three time periods: the 2010s, 2020 to 2040, and 2040 to 2050. The “Regional Mercantilism” scenario, for example, envisions high energy prices, weak economic growth, and global disharmony. To impose numerical consistency across scenarios, Hillebrand and Closson employ the International Futures (IFs) model developed by Barry Hughes. (Interested readers can download this interactive model to alter or build scenarios themselves.) Assessing the probability of each scenario, they conclude that increased U.S. energy supply and the sustainability of the Chinese growth miracle are the most significant drivers over the next forty years.

Suggested Citation

  • Hillebrand, Evan & Closson, Stacy, 2015. "Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures: Eight Long-Range Scenarios," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262028891, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:mtp:titles:0262028891
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    Cited by:

    1. Schritt Jannik, 2016. "The petro-political configuration: entanglements of Western and Chinese oil zones in Niger," ZFW – Advances in Economic Geography, De Gruyter, vol. 60(1-2), pages 40-56, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    energy; economics; geopolitics; futures; scenarios; model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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