Mid-Term Review of the Implementation of AEC Blueprint: Executive Summary
AbstractThe 41st ASEAN Economic Ministers (AEM) held in Bangkok in 2009, as conveyed by the AEM 2011 Chair, H.E. Mari Elka Pangestu’s 15 April 2011 letter to the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) together with the Terms of Reference, requested ERIA to assist ASEAN in undertaking the Comprehensive Mid-Term Review (MTR) of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Blueprint and in providing policy analyses/recommendations to the AEM in order to (a) assess the effectiveness of the adopted measures of the AEC Blueprint as well as the contribution of the AEC Blueprint measures to economic growth, employment, competitiveness and social welfare within ASEAN, and to (b) provide recommendations to enhance the implementation of the AEC Blueprint. The Terms of Reference of the MTR can be broken down into three (3) major tasks; namely: (a) implementation performance of the ASEAN Member States (AMSs) on the AEC measures; (b) the outcomes and impacts or contributions to the economy, actual or potential; and (c) way forward toward accelerated implementation of the AEC measures toward AEC 2015. The MTR covered most of the key measures in the AEC Blueprint. The analysis of the implementation performance of the AMSs is based on the results of the ERIA AEC Scorecard Phase 2 as well as on updates undertaken by the MTR Study Team. For outcomes and outputs, the MTR Study Team developed a number of questionnaires for small surveys or interviews of concerned officials or the private sector; the MTR Study Team also used secondary data where relevant. The analysis of economy wide effects relied on simulation analyses based on computable general equilibrium models. Three such models were used in the Study to examine the economy wide effects of services liberalization, regional integration in ASEAN and various FTA options, and the household impact of agriculture trade liberalization. In addition, two gravity models were also used to examine impact of CEPT tariff elimination on intra-ASEAN trade as well as bilateral investment flows. Finally, the MTR Study also made extensive use of the IDE-ERIA Geographic Simulation Model to examine the economic implications of transport and trade facilitation initiatives at a more spatially disaggregated level.
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