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A Mathematical Model for Pathogen Cross‐Contamination Dynamics during the Postharvest Processing of Leafy Greens

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  • Amir Mokhtari
  • David Oryang
  • Yuhuan Chen
  • Regis Pouillot
  • Jane Van Doren

Abstract

We developed a probabilistic mathematical model for the postharvest processing of leafy greens focusing on Escherichia coli O157:H7 contamination of fresh‐cut romaine lettuce as the case study. Our model can (i) support the investigation of cross‐contamination scenarios, and (ii) evaluate and compare different risk mitigation options. We used an agent‐based modeling framework to predict the pathogen prevalence and levels in bags of fresh‐cut lettuce and quantify spread of E. coli O157:H7 from contaminated lettuce to surface areas of processing equipment. Using an unbalanced factorial design, we were able to propagate combinations of random values assigned to model inputs through different processing steps and ranked statistically significant inputs with respect to their impacts on selected model outputs. Results indicated that whether contamination originated on incoming lettuce heads or on the surface areas of processing equipment, pathogen prevalence among bags of fresh‐cut lettuce and batches was most significantly impacted by the level of free chlorine in the flume tank and frequency of replacing the wash water inside the tank. Pathogen levels in bags of fresh‐cut lettuce were most significantly influenced by the initial levels of contamination on incoming lettuce heads or surface areas of processing equipment. The influence of surface contamination on pathogen prevalence or levels in fresh‐cut bags depended on the location of that surface relative to the flume tank. This study demonstrates that developing a flexible yet mathematically rigorous modeling tool, a “virtual laboratory,” can provide valuable insights into the effectiveness of individual and combined risk mitigation options.

Suggested Citation

  • Amir Mokhtari & David Oryang & Yuhuan Chen & Regis Pouillot & Jane Van Doren, 2018. "A Mathematical Model for Pathogen Cross‐Contamination Dynamics during the Postharvest Processing of Leafy Greens," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(8), pages 1718-1737, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:38:y:2018:i:8:p:1718-1737
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12960
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Sumeet R. Patil & H. Christopher Frey, 2004. "Comparison of Sensitivity Analysis Methods Based on Applications to a Food Safety Risk Assessment Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(3), pages 573-585, June.
    3. Nicolas Miconnet & Marie Cornu & Annie Beaufort & Laurent Rosso & Jean‐Baptiste Denis, 2005. "Uncertainty Distribution Associated with Estimating a Proportion in Microbial Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(1), pages 39-48, February.
    4. Seltzer, Jonathan M. & Rush, Jeff & Kinsey, Jean D., 2009. "Natural Selection: 2006 E. coli Recall of Fresh Spinach: A Case Study by The Food Industry Center," Case Studies 54784, University of Minnesota, The Food Industry Center.
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