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The Effects of Urban Form on Ambient Air Pollution and Public Health Risk: A Case Study in Raleigh, North Carolina

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  • Theodore J. Mansfield
  • Daniel A. Rodriguez
  • Joseph Huegy
  • Jacqueline MacDonald Gibson

Abstract

Since motor vehicles are a major air pollution source, urban designs that decrease private automobile use could improve air quality and decrease air pollution health risks. Yet, the relationships among urban form, air quality, and health are complex and not fully understood. To explore these relationships, we model the effects of three alternative development scenarios on annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations in ambient air and associated health risks from PM2.5 exposure in North Carolina's Raleigh‐Durham‐Chapel Hill area. We integrate transportation demand, land‐use regression, and health risk assessment models to predict air quality and health impacts for three development scenarios: current conditions, compact development, and sprawling development. Compact development slightly decreases (−0.2%) point estimates of regional annual average PM2.5 concentrations, while sprawling development slightly increases (+1%) concentrations. However, point estimates of health impacts are in opposite directions: compact development increases (+39%) and sprawling development decreases (−33%) PM2.5‐attributable mortality. Furthermore, compactness increases local variation in PM2.5 concentrations and increases the severity of local air pollution hotspots. Hence, this research suggests that while compact development may improve air quality from a regional perspective, it may also increase the concentration of PM2.5 in local hotspots and increase population exposure to PM2.5. Health effects may be magnified if compact neighborhoods and PM2.5 hotspots are spatially co‐located. We conclude that compactness alone is an insufficient means of reducing the public health impacts of transportation emissions in automobile‐dependent regions. Rather, additional measures are needed to decrease automobile dependence and the health risks of transportation emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Theodore J. Mansfield & Daniel A. Rodriguez & Joseph Huegy & Jacqueline MacDonald Gibson, 2015. "The Effects of Urban Form on Ambient Air Pollution and Public Health Risk: A Case Study in Raleigh, North Carolina," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(5), pages 901-918, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:35:y:2015:i:5:p:901-918
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12317
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    3. Chunshan Zhou & Shijie Li & Shaojian Wang, 2018. "Examining the Impacts of Urban Form on Air Pollution in Developing Countries: A Case Study of China’s Megacities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-18, July.
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    6. Bingtian Li & Yongzhi Liu & Xinyi Wang & Qingjun Fu & Xianqing Lv, 2019. "Application of the Orthogonal Polynomial Fitting Method in Estimating PM 2.5 Concentrations in Central and Southern Regions of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-14, April.
    7. Heyer, Johanna & Palm, Matthew & Niemeier, Deb, 2020. "Are we keeping up? Accessibility, equity and air quality in regional planning," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. Chaosu Li & Yan Song & Li Tian & Wei Ouyang, 2020. "Urban Form, Air Quality, and Cardiorespiratory Mortality: A Path Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-14, February.

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