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Characterizing Poliovirus Transmission and Evolution: Insights from Modeling Experiences with Wild and Vaccine‐Related Polioviruses

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  • Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens
  • Mark A. Pallansch
  • Dominika A. Kalkowska
  • Steven G. F. Wassilak
  • Stephen L. Cochi
  • Kimberly M. Thompson

Abstract

With national and global health policymakers facing numerous complex decisions related to achieving and maintaining polio eradication, we expanded our previously developed dynamic poliovirus transmission model using information from an expert literature review process and including additional immunity states and the evolution of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV). The model explicitly considers serotype differences and distinguishes fecal‐oral and oropharyngeal transmission. We evaluated the model by simulating diverse historical experiences with polioviruses, including one country that eliminated wild poliovirus using both OPV and inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) (USA), three importation outbreaks of wild poliovirus (Albania, the Netherlands, Tajikistan), one situation in which no circulating vaccine‐derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) emerge despite annual OPV use and cessation (Cuba), three cVDPV outbreaks (Haiti, Madura Island in Indonesia, northern Nigeria), one area of current endemic circulation of all three serotypes (northern Nigeria), and one area with recent endemic circulation and subsequent elimination of multiple serotypes (northern India). We find that when sufficient information about the conditions exists, the model can reproduce the general behavior of poliovirus transmission and outbreaks while maintaining consistency in the generic model inputs. The assumption of spatially homogeneous mixing remains a significant limitation that affects the performance of the differential equation‐based model when significant heterogeneities in immunity and mixing may exist. Further studies on OPV virus evolution and improved understanding of the mechanisms of mixing and transmission may help to better characterize poliovirus transmission in populations. Broad application of the model promises to offer insights in the context of global and national policy and economic models.

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  • Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Dominika A. Kalkowska & Steven G. F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Characterizing Poliovirus Transmission and Evolution: Insights from Modeling Experiences with Wild and Vaccine‐Related Polioviruses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 703-749, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:33:y:2013:i:4:p:703-749
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12044
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    Cited by:

    1. Kimberly M. Thompson & Dominika A. Kalkowska & Kamran Badizadegan, 2021. "A Health Economic Analysis for Oral Poliovirus Vaccine to Prevent COVID‐19 in the United States," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 376-386, February.
    2. Kimberly M. Thompson & Nima D. Badizadegan, 2017. "Modeling the Transmission of Measles and Rubella to Support Global Management Policy Analyses and Eradication Investment Cases," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(6), pages 1109-1131, June.
    3. Kimberly M. Thompson & Cassie L. Odahowski, 2016. "Systematic Review of Measles and Rubella Serology Studies," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(7), pages 1459-1486, July.
    4. Kimberly M. Thompson & Dominika A. Kalkowska, 2021. "Reflections on Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and the Polio Eradication Endgame," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 229-247, February.
    5. Kimberly M. Thompson & Mark A. Pallansch & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Steve G. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi, 2013. "Modeling Population Immunity to Support Efforts to End the Transmission of Live Polioviruses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 647-663, April.
    6. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2018. "Using integrated modeling to support the global eradication of vaccine‐preventable diseases," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 34(1-2), pages 78-120, January.
    7. Kamran Badizadegan & Dominika A. Kalkowska & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2023. "Health Economic Analysis of Antiviral Drugs in the Global Polio Eradication Endgame," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 43(7-8), pages 850-862, October.
    8. Kimberly M. Thompson & Cassie L. Odahowski & James L. Goodson & Susan E. Reef & Robert T. Perry, 2016. "Synthesis of Evidence to Characterize National Measles and Rubella Exposure and Immunization Histories," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(7), pages 1427-1458, July.
    9. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2021. "Health and Economic Outcomes Associated with Polio Vaccine Policy Options: 2019–2029," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 364-375, February.
    10. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2019. "Environmental Surveillance System Characteristics and Impacts on Confidence About No Undetected Serotype 1 Wild Poliovirus Circulation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 414-425, February.
    11. Kimberly M. Thompson & Stephen L. Cochi, 2016. "Modeling and Managing the Risks of Measles and Rubella: A Global Perspective, Part I," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(7), pages 1288-1296, July.
    12. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2019. "Evaluation of Proactive and Reactive Strategies for Polio Eradication Activities in Pakistan and Afghanistan," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 389-401, February.
    13. Negar Darabi & Niyousha Hosseinichimeh, 2020. "System dynamics modeling in health and medicine: a systematic literature review," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(1), pages 29-73, January.
    14. Kimberly M. Thompson & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Steven G.F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi, 2015. "Polio Eradicators Use Integrated Analytical Models to Make Better Decisions," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 45(1), pages 5-25, February.
    15. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Richard Franka & Jeff Higgins & Stephanie D. Kovacs & Joseph C. Forbi & Steven G. F. Wassilak & Mark A. Pallansch & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2021. "Modeling Poliovirus Transmission in Borno and Yobe, Northeast Nigeria," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 289-302, February.
    16. Kimberly M. Thompson & Mark A. Pallansch & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Steve G. Wassilak & Jong‐Hoon Kim & Stephen L. Cochi, 2013. "Preeradication Vaccine Policy Options for Poliovirus Infection and Disease Control," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 516-543, April.
    17. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Jong‐Hoon Kim & Cara C. Burns & Olen M. Kew & M. Steven Oberste & Ousmane M. Diop & Steven G.F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Oral Poliovirus Vaccine Evolution and Insights Relevant to Modeling the Risks of Circulating Vaccine‐Derived Polioviruses (cVDPVs)," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 680-702, April.
    18. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Modeling Poliovirus Risks and the Legacy of Polio Eradication," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 505-515, April.
    19. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2019. "Modeling Undetected Live Poliovirus Circulation After Apparent Interruption of Transmission: Pakistan and Afghanistan," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 402-413, February.
    20. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Mark A. Pallansch & Amanda Wilkinson & Ananda S. Bandyopadhyay & Jennifer L. Konopka‐Anstadt & Cara C. Burns & M. Steven Oberste & Steven G. F. Wassilak & Kamran Badizadegan & , 2021. "Updated Characterization of Outbreak Response Strategies for 2019–2029: Impacts of Using a Novel Type 2 Oral Poliovirus Vaccine Strain," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 329-348, February.
    21. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Mark A. Pallansch & Steven G. F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2021. "Global Transmission of Live Polioviruses: Updated Dynamic Modeling of the Polio Endgame," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 248-265, February.
    22. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Stephen L. Cochi & Derek T. Ehrhardt & Noha H. Farag & Stephen C. Hadler & Lee M. Hampton & Maureen Martinez & Steve G.F. Wassilak & Kimberly M. Thomp, 2018. "Modeling Poliovirus Transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan to Inform Vaccination Strategies in Undervaccinated Subpopulations," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(8), pages 1701-1717, August.

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