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Expert Review on Poliovirus Immunity and Transmission

Author

Listed:
  • Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens
  • Mark A. Pallansch
  • Konstantin M. Chumakov
  • Neal A. Halsey
  • Tapani Hovi
  • Philip D. Minor
  • John F. Modlin
  • Peter A. Patriarca
  • Roland W. Sutter
  • Peter F. Wright
  • Steven G. F. Wassilak
  • Stephen L. Cochi
  • Jong‐Hoon Kim
  • Kimberly M. Thompson

Abstract

Successfully managing risks to achieve wild polioviruses (WPVs) eradication and address the complexities of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation to stop all cases of paralytic poliomyelitis depends strongly on our collective understanding of poliovirus immunity and transmission. With increased shifting from OPV to inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), numerous risk management choices motivate the need to understand the tradeoffs and uncertainties and to develop models to help inform decisions. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hosted a meeting of international experts in April 2010 to review the available literature relevant to poliovirus immunity and transmission. This expert review evaluates 66 OPV challenge studies and other evidence to support the development of quantitative models of poliovirus transmission and potential outbreaks. This review focuses on characterization of immunity as a function of exposure history in terms of susceptibility to excretion, duration of excretion, and concentration of excreted virus. We also discuss the evidence of waning of host immunity to poliovirus transmission, the relationship between the concentration of poliovirus excreted and infectiousness, the importance of different transmission routes, and the differences in transmissibility between OPV and WPV. We discuss the limitations of the available evidence for use in polio risk models, and conclude that despite the relatively large number of studies on immunity, very limited data exist to directly support quantification of model inputs related to transmission. Given the limitations in the evidence, we identify the need for expert input to derive quantitative model inputs from the existing data.

Suggested Citation

  • Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Konstantin M. Chumakov & Neal A. Halsey & Tapani Hovi & Philip D. Minor & John F. Modlin & Peter A. Patriarca & Roland W. Sutter & Peter F. Wright & S, 2013. "Expert Review on Poliovirus Immunity and Transmission," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 544-605, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:33:y:2013:i:4:p:544-605
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01864.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Walter Dowdle & Harrie Van Der Avoort & Esther De Gourville & Francis Delpeyroux & Jagadish Desphande & Tapani Hovi & Javier Martin & Mark Pallansch & Olen Kew & Chris Wolff, 2006. "Containment of Polioviruses After Eradication and OPV Cessation: Characterizing Risks to Improve Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1449-1469, December.
    2. Thompson, K.M. & Duintjer Tebbens, R.J. & Pallansch, M.A. & Kew, O.M. & Sutter, R.W. & Aylward, R.B. & Watkins, M. & Gary Jr., H.E. & Alexander, J. & Jafari, H. & Cochi, S.L., 2008. "The risks, costs, and benefits of possible future global policies for managing polioviruses," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 98(7), pages 1322-1330.
    3. Kimberly M. Thompson & Mark A. Pallansch & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Steve G. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi, 2013. "Modeling Population Immunity to Support Efforts to End the Transmission of Live Polioviruses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 647-663, April.
    4. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson & M. G. Myriam Hunink & Thomas A. Mazzuchi & Daniel Lewandowski & Dorota Kurowicka & Roger M. Cooke, 2008. "Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of a Dynamic Economic Evaluation Model for Vaccination Programs," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 28(2), pages 182-200, March.
    5. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Olen M. Kew & Victor M. Cáceres & Hamid Jafari & Stephen L. Cochi & Roland W. Sutter & R. Bruce Aylward & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2006. "Risks of Paralytic Disease Due to Wild or Vaccine‐Derived Poliovirus After Eradication," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1471-1505, December.
    6. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Konstantin M. Chumakov & Neal A. Halsey & Tapani Hovi & Philip D. Minor & John F. Modlin & Peter A. Patriarca & Roland W. Sutter & Peter F. Wright & S, 2013. "Review and Assessment of Poliovirus Immunity and Transmission: Synthesis of Knowledge Gaps and Identification of Research Needs," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 606-646, April.
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    1. Gonzaga, M.N. & de Oliveira, M.M. & Atman, A.P.F., 2023. "Immunity Agent-Based Model (IABM) for epidemiological systems," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    2. Kimberly M. Thompson & Dominika A. Kalkowska, 2021. "Potential Future Use, Costs, and Value of Poliovirus Vaccines," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 349-363, February.
    3. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2018. "Using integrated modeling to support the global eradication of vaccine‐preventable diseases," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 34(1-2), pages 78-120, January.
    4. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2021. "Health and Economic Outcomes Associated with Polio Vaccine Policy Options: 2019–2029," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 364-375, February.
    5. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2019. "Evaluation of Proactive and Reactive Strategies for Polio Eradication Activities in Pakistan and Afghanistan," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 389-401, February.
    6. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2019. "Modeling Undetected Live Poliovirus Circulation After Apparent Interruption of Transmission: Pakistan and Afghanistan," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 402-413, February.
    7. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Mark A. Pallansch & Amanda Wilkinson & Ananda S. Bandyopadhyay & Jennifer L. Konopka‐Anstadt & Cara C. Burns & M. Steven Oberste & Steven G. F. Wassilak & Kamran Badizadegan & , 2021. "Updated Characterization of Outbreak Response Strategies for 2019–2029: Impacts of Using a Novel Type 2 Oral Poliovirus Vaccine Strain," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 329-348, February.
    8. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Mark A. Pallansch & Steven G. F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2021. "Global Transmission of Live Polioviruses: Updated Dynamic Modeling of the Polio Endgame," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 248-265, February.
    9. Ternullo S, 2017. "Where We Stand In the Global Eradication of Polio," Global Journal of Pharmacy & Pharmaceutical Sciences, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 2(2), pages 30-37, May.
    10. Kristine Anne C. Vinco & Xerxes G. Malaga, 2021. "Polio Vaccination Literacy Among Mothers of Selected Barangay Health Centers in a Component City," Technium BioChemMed: Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, Biology, Chemistry and Medicine ISSN 2734 - 7990, Technium Science, vol. 2(1), pages 62-78, January.

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