IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v17y1997i1p97-105.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the Effect of Probability Distributions of Input Variables in Public Health Risk Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Maged M. Hamed
  • Philip B. Bedient

Abstract

A central part of probabilistic public health risk assessment is the selection of probability distributions for the uncertain input variables. In this paper, we apply the first‐order reliability method (FORM)(1–3) as a probabilistic tool to assess the effect of probability distributions of the input random variables on the probability that risk exceeds a threshold level (termed the probability of failure) and on the relevant probabilistic sensitivities. The analysis was applied to a case study given by Thompson et al.(4) on cancer risk caused by the ingestion of benzene contaminated soil. Normal, lognormal, and uniform distributions were used in the analysis. The results show that the selection of a probability distribution function for the uncertain variables in this case study had a moderate impact on the probability that values would fall above a given threshold risk when the threshold risk is at the 50th percentile of the original distribution given by Thompson et al.(4) The impact was much greater when the threshold risk level was at the 95th percentile. The impact on uncertainty sensitivity, however, showed a reversed trend, where the impact was more appreciable for the 50th percentile of the original distribution of risk given by Thompson et al.4 than for the 95th percentile. Nevertheless, the choice of distribution shape did not alter the order of probabilistic sensitivity of the basic uncertain variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Maged M. Hamed & Philip B. Bedient, 1997. "On the Effect of Probability Distributions of Input Variables in Public Health Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), pages 97-105, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:17:y:1997:i:1:p:97-105
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1997.tb00848.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1997.tb00848.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1997.tb00848.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dale Hattis & David E. Burmaster, 1994. "Assessment of Variability and Uncertainty Distributions for Practical Risk Analyses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(5), pages 713-730, October.
    2. Kimberly M. Thompson & David E. Burmaster, 1991. "Parametric Distributions for Soil Ingestion by Children," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), pages 339-342, June.
    3. John Bukowski & Leo Korn & Daniel Wartenberg, 1995. "Correlated Inputs in Quantitative Risk Assessment: The Effects of Distributional Shape," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(2), pages 215-219, April.
    4. Betsy Ruffle & David E. Burmaster & Paul D. Anderson & Henry D. Gordon, 1994. "Lognormal Distributions for Fish Consumption by the General U.S. Population," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 395-404, August.
    5. Jennifer Brainard & David E. Burmaster, 1992. "Bivariate Distributions for Height and Weight of Men and Women in the United States," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), pages 267-275, June.
    6. Ann M. Roseberry & David E. Burmaster, 1992. "Lognormal Distributions for Water Intake by Children and Adults," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), pages 99-104, March.
    7. Roy L. Smith, 1994. "Use of Monte Carlo Simulation for Human Exposure Assessment at a Superfund Site," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 433-439, August.
    8. Thomas E. McKone, 1994. "Uncertainty and Variability in Human Exposures to Soil Contaminants Through Home‐Grown Food: A Monte Carlo Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 449-463, August.
    9. Brent Finley & Dennis Paustenbach, 1994. "The Benefits of Probabilistic Exposure Assessment: Three Case Studies Involving Contaminated Air, Water, and Soil," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(1), pages 53-73, February.
    10. Kimberly M. Thompson & David E. Burmaster & Edmund A.C. Crouch3, 1992. "Monte Carlo Techniques for Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis in Public Health Risk Assessments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), pages 53-63, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lisa M. Funk & Richard Sedman & Jill A. J. Beals & Robert Fountain, 1998. "Quantifying the Distribution of Inhalation Exposure in Human Populations: 2. Distributions of Time Spent by Adults, Adolescents, and Children at Home, at Work, and at School," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 47-56, February.
    2. Dale Hattis & David E. Burmaster, 1994. "Assessment of Variability and Uncertainty Distributions for Practical Risk Analyses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(5), pages 713-730, October.
    3. Wout Slob, 1994. "Uncertainty Analysis in Multiplicative Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 571-576, August.
    4. Brent Finley & Dennis Paustenbach, 1994. "The Benefits of Probabilistic Exposure Assessment: Three Case Studies Involving Contaminated Air, Water, and Soil," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(1), pages 53-73, February.
    5. Charles N. Haas, 1999. "On Modeling Correlated Random Variables in Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(6), pages 1205-1214, December.
    6. Charles N. Haas, 1997. "Importance of Distributional Form in Characterizing Inputs to Monte Carlo Risk Assessments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), pages 107-113, February.
    7. Brent Finley & Deborah Proctor & Paul Scott & Natalie Harrington & Dennis Paustenbach & Paul Price, 1994. "Recommended Distributions for Exposure Factors Frequently Used in Health Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 533-553, August.
    8. Frédéric Dor & Pascal Empereur‐Bissonnet & Denis Zmirou & Vincent Nedellec & Jean‐Marie Haguenoer & Frans Jongeneelen & Alain Person & William Dab & Colin Ferguson, 2003. "Validation of Multimedia Models Assessing Exposure to PAHs—The SOLEX Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(5), pages 1047-1057, October.
    9. S.Y. Jimmy Chan, 1993. "An Alternative Approach to the Modeling of Probability Distributions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(1), pages 97-102, February.
    10. David E. Burmaster, 1998. "Lognormal Distributions for Total Water Intake and Tap Water Intake by Pregnant and Lactating Women in the United States," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(2), pages 215-219, April.
    11. Per Sander & Bo Bergbäck & Tomas Öberg, 2006. "Uncertain Numbers and Uncertainty in the Selection of Input Distributions—Consequences for a Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Contaminated Land," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(5), pages 1363-1375, October.
    12. Michael R. Adams & Cynthia A. Hanna & Janet A. Mayernik & William M. Mendez, 1994. "Probabilistic Health Risk Assessment for Exposures to Estuary Sediments and Biota Contaminated with Polychlorinated Biphenyls, Polychlorinated Terphenyls and Other Toxic Substances," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 577-594, August.
    13. Maged M. Hamed, 1997. "First‐Order Reliability Analysis of Public Health Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(2), pages 177-185, April.
    14. Guido Sassi & Bernardo Ruggeri, 2008. "Uncertainty Evaluation of Human Risk Analysis (HRA) of Chemicals by Multiple Exposure Routes," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1343-1356, October.
    15. A. E. Ades & G. Lu, 2003. "Correlations Between Parameters in Risk Models: Estimation and Propagation of Uncertainty by Markov Chain Monte Carlo," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(6), pages 1165-1172, December.
    16. Harshit Mishra & Subhankar Karmakar & Rakesh Kumar & Jitendra Singh, 2017. "A Framework for Assessing Uncertainty Associated with Human Health Risks from MSW Landfill Leachate Contamination," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(7), pages 1237-1255, July.
    17. Viscusi, W. Kip & Hamilton, James T. & Dockins, P. Christen, 1997. "Conservative versus Mean Risk Assessments: Implications for Superfund Policies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 187-206, November.
    18. Lee, Chang-Ju & Lee, Kun Jai, 2006. "Application of Bayesian network to the probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear waste disposal," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(5), pages 515-532.
    19. A. E. Ades & Karl Claxton & Mark Sculpher, 2006. "Evidence synthesis, parameter correlation and probabilistic sensitivity analysis," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 373-381, April.
    20. J. C. Helton & F. J. Davis, 2002. "Illustration of Sampling‐Based Methods for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(3), pages 591-622, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:17:y:1997:i:1:p:97-105. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.