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Robust estimation of risk‐neutral moments

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  • Manuel Ammann
  • Alexander Feser

Abstract

This study provides an in‐depth analysis of how to estimate risk‐neutral moments robustly. A simulation and an empirical study show that estimating risk‐neutral moments presents a trade‐off between (a) the bias of estimates caused by a limited strike price domain and (b) the variance of estimates induced by microstructural noise. The best trade‐off is offered by option‐implied quantile moments estimated from a volatility surface interpolated with a local‐linear kernel regression and extrapolated linearly. A similarly good trade‐off is achieved by estimating regular central option‐implied moments from a volatility surface interpolated with a cubic smoothing spline and flat extrapolation.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel Ammann & Alexander Feser, 2019. "Robust estimation of risk‐neutral moments," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(9), pages 1137-1166, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:39:y:2019:i:9:p:1137-1166
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22020
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ko Adachi & Kazuhiro Hiraki & Tomiyuki Kitamura, 2021. "Supplementary Paper Series for the "Assessment" (1): The Effects of the Bank of Japan's ETF Purchases on Risk Premia in the Stock Markets," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 21-E-3, Bank of Japan.
    3. Matthias Muck, 2022. "Arbitrage-free smile construction on FX option markets using Garman-Kohlhagen deltas and implied volatilities," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 293-314, October.

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