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Time‐varying market price of risk in the crude oil futures market

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  • Ramaprasad Bhar
  • Damien Lee

Abstract

In this study, a three‐factor model of crude oil prices is estimated, which incorporates a time‐varying market price of risk. The model is able to accurately capture the term structure of futures prices with evidence suggesting that risk premiums in the crude oil market are time‐varying. Using the cross‐section of futures prices, we estimate a time‐series of the market price of risk in the crude oil market implied by the model. We find that the risk premiums in the crude oil market are driven by the same risk factors as equity and bond markets. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:779–807, 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Ramaprasad Bhar & Damien Lee, 2011. "Time‐varying market price of risk in the crude oil futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(8), pages 779-807, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:31:y:2011:i:8:p:779-807
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrés Mirantes & Javier Población & Gregorio Serna, 2015. "Commodity derivative valuation under a factor model with time-varying market prices of risk," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 75-93, April.
    2. Cifuentes, Sebastián & Cortazar, Gonzalo & Ortega, Hector & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2020. "Expected prices, futures prices and time-varying risk premiums: The case of copper," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. Mario Figueiredo & Yuri F. Saporito, 2023. "Forecasting the term structure of commodities future prices using machine learning," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 57-90, March.
    4. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Ortega, Hector & Rojas, Maximiliano & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2021. "Commodity index risk premium," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    5. Shao, Chengwu & Bhar, Ramaprasad & Colwell, David B., 2015. "A multi-factor model with time-varying and seasonal risk premiums for the natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 207-214.
    6. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2021. "Modeling ex-ante risk premia in the oil market," Working Papers hal-03508699, HAL.
    7. Karanasos, Menelaos & Menla Ali, Faek & Margaronis, Zannis & Nath, Rajat, 2018. "Modelling time varying volatility spillovers and conditional correlations across commodity metal futures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 246-256.
    8. Bisht Deepak & Laha, A. K., 2017. "Assessment of Density Forecast for Energy Commodities in Post-Financialization Era," IIMA Working Papers WP 2017-07-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    9. Yin, Libo & Feng, Jiabao & Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "It's not that important: The negligible effect of oil market uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 62-84.

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