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A test of the Samuelson Hypothesis using realized range

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  • Petko S. Kalev
  • Huu Nhan Duong

Abstract

This study examines the Samuelson Hypothesis, which postulates that futures price volatility increases as the futures contract approaches its expiration. Investigating intraday data and drawing on the recently developed concept of realized range, this study provides empirical evidence regarding the Samuelson Hypothesis for 14 agricultural, metal, energy, and financial futures markets in six futures exchanges. While utilizing a nonparametric test, a simple linear regression model and a system of seemingly unrelated regressions, the study finds strong support for the Samuelson Hypothesis in agricultural futures. In contrast, no support for the Samuelson Hypothesis is observed in any of the metal and financial futures. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:680–696, 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Petko S. Kalev & Huu Nhan Duong, 2008. "A test of the Samuelson Hypothesis using realized range," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 680-696, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:28:y:2008:i:7:p:680-696
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    Cited by:

    1. Sévi, Benoît, 2014. "Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using intraday data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(3), pages 643-659.
    2. Neda Todorova, 2012. "Volatility estimators based on daily price ranges versus the realized range," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 215-229, February.
    3. Robert Brooks & Pavel Teterin, 2020. "Samuelson hypothesis, arbitrage activity, and futures term premiums," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(9), pages 1420-1441, September.
    4. Jing Nie, 2019. "High‐Frequency Price Discovery and Price Efficiency on Interest Rate Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(11), pages 1394-1434, November.
    5. Ergen, Ibrahim & Rizvanoghlu, Islam, 2016. "Asymmetric impacts of fundamentals on the natural gas futures volatility: An augmented GARCH approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 64-74.
    6. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-053 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Xu, Kewei & Xiong, Xiong & Li, Xiao, 2021. "The maturity effect of stock index futures: Speculation or carry arbitrage?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    8. Liu, Wei-han, 2016. "A re-examination of maturity effect of energy futures price from the perspective of stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 351-362.
    9. Damien Wallace & Petko S. Kalev & Guanhua Lian, 2019. "The evolution of price discovery in us equity and derivatives markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(9), pages 1122-1136, September.

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