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Volatility and maturity effects in the Nikkei index futures

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  • Yen‐Ju Chen
  • Jin‐Chuan Duan
  • Mao‐Wei Hung

Abstract

Many financial data series are found to exhibit stochastic volatility. Some of these time series are constructed from contracts with time‐varying maturities. In this paper, we focus on index futures, an important subclass of such time series. We propose a bivariate GARCH model with the maturity effect to describe the joint dynamics of the spot index and the futures‐spot basis. The setup makes it possible to examine the Samuelson effect as well as to compare the hedge ratios under scenarios with and without the maturity effect. The Nikkei‐225 index and its futures are used in our empirical analysis. Contrary to the Samuelson effect, we find that the volatility of the futures price decreases when the contract is closer to its maturity. We also apply our model to futures hedging, and find that both the optimal hedge ratio and the hedging effectiveness critically depend on both the maturity and GARCH effects. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 895–909, 1999

Suggested Citation

  • Yen‐Ju Chen & Jin‐Chuan Duan & Mao‐Wei Hung, 1999. "Volatility and maturity effects in the Nikkei index futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(8), pages 895-909, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:19:y:1999:i:8:p:895-909
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    1. Wen, Danyan & Wang, Gang-Jin & Ma, Chaoqun & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Risk spillovers between oil and stock markets: A VAR for VaR analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 524-535.
    2. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Huang, Chih-Yueh & Marsh, Ian W., 2021. "Modelling the volatility of TOCOM energy futures: A regime switching realised volatility approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    3. Liu, 2014. "Do futures prices exhibit maturity effect? A nonparametric revisit," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(8), pages 813-825, March.
    4. Kim, Myeong Jun & Park, Sung Y., 2016. "Optimal conditional hedge ratio: A simple shrinkage estimation approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 139-156.
    5. Woradee Jongadsayakul, 2015. "Determinants Of Silver Futures Price Volatility: Evidence From The Thailand Futures Exchange," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 9(4), pages 81-87.
    6. Qing Xu & Xiao-Ming Li, 2009. "Estimation of dynamic asymmetric tail dependences: an empirical study on Asian developed futures markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 273-290.
    7. Xu, Kewei & Xiong, Xiong & Li, Xiao, 2021. "The maturity effect of stock index futures: Speculation or carry arbitrage?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    8. Liu, Wei-han, 2016. "A re-examination of maturity effect of energy futures price from the perspective of stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 351-362.
    9. Verner, Robert & Tkáč, Michal, 2023. "On the predictability of bonds," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    10. Madarassy Akin, Rita, 2003. "Maturity Effects in Futures Markets: Evidence from Eleven Financial Futures Markets," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1n04g31b, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    11. Jonathan Dark, 2004. "Long term hedging of the Australian All Ordinaries Index using a bivariate error correction FIGARCH model," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 7/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    12. Hoang‐Long Phan & Ralf Zurbruegg, 2020. "The time‐to‐maturity pattern of futures price sensitivity to news," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 126-144, January.
    13. Phan, Hoàng-Long & Zurbruegg, Ralf & Brockman, Paul & Yu, Chia-Feng (Jeffrey), 2022. "Time-to-maturity and commodity futures return volatility: The role of time-varying asymmetric information," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    14. Ping-Hung Chou & Pei-Shan Wu & Teng-Tsai Tu, 2014. "The Impact of Trader Behavior on Options Price Volatility," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(4), pages 503-516, April.

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