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Valuation of futures and commodity options with information costs

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  • Mondher Bellalah

Abstract

In this article, futures and commodity options are analyzed in the context of Merton's (1987) model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information. First, following Dusak (1973) and Black (1976), the conditions under which Merton's model can be applied to the valuation of forward and futures contracts are proposed. Then an application to futures markets is given. We provide a partial differential equation and the formulas for European commodity options, futures contracts, and American options in the same context. The models are simulated and compared to standard models with no information costs. We find that model prices are not significantly different from standard model prices. However, our models correct for some pricing biases in standard models. In particular, they reduce the overvaluation bias for European and American commodity options. It seems that the costs of gathering and processing information regarding the option and its underlying asset play a role in explaining the biases observed in standard models. This work can be applied to other futures markets. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 645–664, 1999

Suggested Citation

  • Mondher Bellalah, 1999. "Valuation of futures and commodity options with information costs," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 645-664, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:19:y:1999:i:6:p:645-664
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    Cited by:

    1. Mondher Bellalah, 2009. "Derivatives, Risk Management & Value," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 7175.
    2. Mondher Bellalah & Xu Guo & Shuo Wu & Detao Zhang, 2022. "General equilibrium with heterogeneous participants and continuous consumption with information costs and short selling constraints," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 713-732, June.
    3. Mondher Bellalah & Akeb Hakim & Kehan Si & Detao Zhang, 2022. "Long term optimal investment with regime switching: inflation, information and short sales," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1373-1386, June.
    4. Mondher bellalah, 2018. "Pricing derivatives in the presence of shadow costs of incomplete information and short sales," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 389-411, March.
    5. Mondher Bellalah & Zhen Wu, 2009. "A simple model of corporate international investment under incomplete information and taxes," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 123-143, January.
    6. Mondher Bellalah & Detao Zhang & Panpan Zhang, 2020. "Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Shadow Costs with Fixed Assets when Time-Horizon Is Uncertain," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(1), pages 5-20, June.
    7. Mondher Bellalah, 2018. "On information costs, short sales and the pricing of extendible options, steps and Parisian options," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 361-387, March.
    8. Bellalah, Mondher, 2016. "Shadow costs of incomplete information and short sales in the valuation of the firm and its assets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 406-419.
    9. Bellalah, Mondher, 2016. "Issues in real options with shadow costs of incomplete information and short sales," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 45-56.
    10. Bellalah, Mondher & Zhang, Detao, 2017. "A model for international capital markets closure in an economy with incomplete markets and short sales," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 316-324.
    11. Mondher Bellalah & Marc Lavielle, 2002. "A Decomposition of Empirical Distributions with Applications to the Valuation of Derivative Assets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 6(2), pages 99-130, June.

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