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Born Weak, Growing Strong: Anti‐Government Protests as a Signal of Rebel Strength in the Context of Civil Wars

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  • Bahar Leventoğlu
  • Nils W. Metternich

Abstract

All rebel organizations start weak, but how do they grow and achieve favorable conflict outcomes? We present a theoretical model that allows for rebel organizations to gain support beyond their “core” and build their bargaining power during fighting. We highlight that rebel organizations need to win over crucial parts of society to generate the necessary support that allows them to attain favorable civil conflict outcomes. We find empirical support for the argument that low‐income individuals who initially fight the government (rebel organizations) have to convince middle‐class individuals to turn out against the government to gain government concessions. Empirically, we demonstrate that government concessions in the form of peace agreements and the onset of negotiations become more likely when protest occurs in the context of civil conflicts. Replication Materials The data, code, and any additional materials required to replicate all analyses in this article are available on the American Journal of Political Science Dataverse within the Harvard Dataverse Network, at: http://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/MYDZNF.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahar Leventoğlu & Nils W. Metternich, 2018. "Born Weak, Growing Strong: Anti‐Government Protests as a Signal of Rebel Strength in the Context of Civil Wars," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(3), pages 581-596, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:62:y:2018:i:3:p:581-596
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12356
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    Cited by:

    1. Berman, Nicolas & Couttenier, Mathieu & Monnet, Nathalie & Ticku, Rohit, 2022. "Shutdown policies and conflict worldwide," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 240-255.
    2. Desirée Nilsson & Isak Svensson, 2023. "Pushing the doors open: Nonviolent action and inclusion in peace negotiations," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(1), pages 58-72, January.
    3. Li Donni, Paolo & Marino, Maria & Welzel, Christian, 2021. "How important is culture to understand political protest?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    4. Jean Lacroix, 2023. "Ballots Instead of Bullets? The Effect of the Voting Rights Act on Political Violence," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 764-813.
    5. Brandon Ives & Jacob S. Lewis, 2020. "From Rallies to Riots: Why Some Protests Become Violent," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(5), pages 958-986, May.
    6. Lewis, Janet I., 2023. "Rebel group formation in Africa: Evidence from a new dataset," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    7. Sargis Karavardanyan, 2021. "Are Actions Costlier Than Words? Formal Models of Protester-Police Dynamic Interactions and Evidence from Empirical Analysis," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 1-29, December.

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