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Electoral Backlash against Climate Policy: A Natural Experiment on Retrospective Voting and Local Resistance to Public Policy

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  • Leah C. Stokes

Abstract

Retrospective voting studies typically examine policies where the public has common interests. By contrast, climate policy has broad public support but concentrated opposition in communities where costs are imposed. This spatial distribution of weak supporters and strong local opponents mirrors opposition to other policies with diffuse public benefits and concentrated local costs. I use a natural experiment to investigate whether citizens living in proximity to wind energy projects retrospectively punished an incumbent government because of its climate policy. Using both fixed effects and instrumental variable estimators, I identify electoral losses for the incumbent party ranging from 4 to 10%, with the effect persisting 3 km from wind turbines. There is also evidence that voters are informed, only punishing the government responsible for the policy. I conclude that the spatial distribution of citizens' policy preferences can affect democratic accountability through ‘spatially distorted signalling’, which can exacerbate political barriers to addressing climate change.

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  • Leah C. Stokes, 2016. "Electoral Backlash against Climate Policy: A Natural Experiment on Retrospective Voting and Local Resistance to Public Policy," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 60(4), pages 958-974, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:60:y:2016:i:4:p:958-974
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12220
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Huang & Matthew E. Kahn, 2024. "Do Red States Have a Comparative Advantage in Generating Green Power?," Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 200-238.
    2. Bernhard Reinsberg & Haley Swedlund, 2023. "How transparent are aid agencies to their citizens? Introducing the Citizen Aid Transparency Dataset," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 2177-2212, October.
    3. Apoorva Lal & Mac Lockhart & Yiqing Xu & Ziwen Zu, 2023. "How Much Should We Trust Instrumental Variable Estimates in Political Science? Practical Advice Based on Over 60 Replicated Studies," Papers 2303.11399, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    4. Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés & Bartalucci, Federico, 2023. "Regional vulnerability to the green transition," Single Market Economics Papers WP2023/16, Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (European Commission), Chief Economist Team.
    5. Bruno Castanho Silva & Jens Wäckerle & Christopher Wratil, 2022. "Determinants of Public Opinion Support for a Full Embargo on Russian Energy in Germany," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 170, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    6. Jarvis, Stephen, 2021. "The economic costs of NIMBYism: evidence from renewable energy projects," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113653, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Mitsch, Frieder & McNeil, Andrew, 2022. "Political implications of ‘green’ infrastructure in one’s ‘backyard’: the Green Party’s Catch 22?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115269, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés & Bartalucci, Federico, 2023. "The green transition and its potential territorial discontents," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120536, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Italo Colantone & Livio Di Lonardo & Yotam Margalit & Marco Percoco, 2022. "The Political Consequences of Green Policies: Evidence from Italy," CESifo Working Paper Series 9599, CESifo.
    10. David Foster & Joseph Warren, 2022. "The NIMBY problem," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 34(1), pages 145-172, January.
    11. Stegmaier, Vincent & Krause, Melanie, 2023. "Headwind at the Ballot Box? - The Effect of Visible Wind Turbines on Green Party Support," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277671, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Italo Colantone & Livio Di Donaldo & Yotam Margalit & Marco Percoco, 2022. "The Political Consequences of Green Policies: Evidence from Italy," Working Papers 2022.28, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    13. Germeshausen, Robert & Heim, Sven & Wagner, Ulrich J., 2021. "Support for renewable energy: The case of wind power," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-074, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    14. Nicolae Stef & Sami Ben Jabeur, 2023. "Elections and Environmental Quality," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(2), pages 593-625, February.
    15. Bayulgen, Oksan & Atkinson-Palombo, Carol & Buchanan, Mary & Scruggs, Lyle, 2021. "Tilting at windmills? Electoral repercussions of wind turbine projects in Minnesota," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    16. Dana R. Fisher & Sohana Nasrin, 2021. "Climate activism and its effects," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), January.
    17. Haris Doukas & Alexandros Nikas & Giorgos Stamtsis & Ioannis Tsipouridis, 2020. "The Green Versus Green Trap and a Way Forward," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-6, October.
    18. Wibbenmeyer, Matthew & Anderson, Sarah & Plantinga, Andrew J., 2020. "Inequality in Agency Responsiveness: Evidence from Salient Wildfire Events," RFF Working Paper Series 20-22, Resources for the Future.
    19. Sebastian Sewerin & Daniel Béland & Benjamin Cashore, 2020. "Designing policy for the long term: agency, policy feedback and policy change," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 53(2), pages 243-252, June.
    20. Heather Millar & Matthew Lesch & Linda A. White, 2019. "Connecting models of the individual and policy change processes: a research agenda," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 52(1), pages 97-118, March.
    21. Walker, Chad & Stephenson, Laura & Baxter, Jamie, 2018. "“His main platform is ‘stop the turbines’ ”: Political discourse, partisanship and local responses to wind energy in Canada," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 670-681.
    22. Colantone, Italo & Di Lonardo, Livio & Margalit, Yotan & Percoco, Marco, 2022. "The Political Consequences of Green Policies: Evidence from Italy," FEEM Working Papers 327326, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    23. Italo Colantone & Livio Di Lonardo & Yotam Margalit & Marco Percoco, 2022. "The Political Consequences of Green Policies: Evidence from Italy," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 22176, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    24. Mohammed, Sayeed & Desha, Cheryl & Goonetilleke, Ashantha, 2023. "Investigating the potential of low-carbon pathways for hydrocarbon-dependent rentier states: Sociotechnical transition in Qatar," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    25. Arndt, Christoph, 2023. "Climate change vs energy security? The conditional support for energy sources among Western Europeans," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).

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