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Is Voting Habit Forming? New Evidence from Experiments and Regression Discontinuities

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  • Alexander Coppock
  • Donald P. Green

Abstract

Field experiments and regression discontinuity designs test whether voting is habit forming by examining whether a random shock to turnout in one election affects participation in subsequent elections. We contribute to this literature by offering a vast amount of new statistical evidence on the long‐term consequences of random and quasi‐random inducements to vote. The behavior of millions of voters confirms the persistence of voter turnout and calls attention to theoretically meaningful nuances in the development and expression of voting habits. We suggest that individuals become habituated to voting in particular types of elections. The degree of persistence appears to vary by electoral context and by the attributes of those who comply with an initial inducement to vote.

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  • Alexander Coppock & Donald P. Green, 2016. "Is Voting Habit Forming? New Evidence from Experiments and Regression Discontinuities," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 60(4), pages 1044-1062, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:60:y:2016:i:4:p:1044-1062
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12210
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    Cited by:

    1. Mariella Gonzales & Gianmarco León-Ciliotta & Luis R. Martínez, 2022. "How Effective Are Monetary Incentives to Vote? Evidence from a Nationwide Policy," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 293-326, January.
    2. Robert A. Jackson & Matthew Pietryka, 2022. "The influence of becoming a parent on political participation in the United States," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 103(3), pages 565-580, May.
    3. Gaebler, Stefanie & Potrafke, Niklas & Roesel, Felix, 2020. "Compulsory voting and political participation: Empirical evidence from Austria," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Apoorva Lal & Mac Lockhart & Yiqing Xu & Ziwen Zu, 2023. "How Much Should We Trust Instrumental Variable Estimates in Political Science? Practical Advice Based on Over 60 Replicated Studies," Papers 2303.11399, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    5. Stefanie Gäbler & Niklas Potrafke & Felix Rösel, 2017. "Compulsory Voting, Voter Turnout and Asymmetrical Habit-formation," CESifo Working Paper Series 6764, CESifo.
    6. Stommes, Drew & Aronow, P. M. & Sävje, Fredrik, 2023. "On the Reliability of Published Findings Using the Regression Discontinuity Design in Political Science," I4R Discussion Paper Series 22, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    7. González, Felipe, 2020. "Collective action in networks: Evidence from the Chilean student movement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    8. Elizabeth U. Cascio & Na'ama Shenhav, 2020. "A Century of the American Woman Voter: Sex Gaps in Political Participation, Preferences, and Partisanship since Women's Enfranchisement," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 24-48, Spring.
    9. Ethan Kaplan & Fernando Saltiel & Sergio S. Urzúa, 2019. "Voting for Democracy: Chile's Plebiscito and the Electoral Participation of a Generation," NBER Working Papers 26440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Bell, D’Wayne & Holbein, John B. & Imlay, Samuel J. & Smith, Jonathan, 2024. "Which Colleges Increase Voting Rates?," IZA Discussion Papers 16813, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Galasso, Vincenzo & Morelli, Massimo & Nannicini, Tommaso & Stanig, Piero, 2024. "The Populist Dynamic: Experimental Evidence on the Effects of Countering Populism," IZA Discussion Papers 16796, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Öhrvall, Richard & Oskarsson, Sven, 2018. "Practice Makes Voters? Effects of Student Mock Elections on Turnout," Working Paper Series 1258, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    13. Konstantinos Ioannidis, 2022. "Habitual Communication," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-016/I, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Jonas Jessen & Daniel Kuehnle & Markus Wagner, 2021. "Is Voting Really Habit-Forming and Transformative? Long-Run Effects of Earlier Eligibility on Turnout and Political Involvement from the UK," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1973, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Damon Proulx & David A. Savage & David Stadelmann & Benno Torgler, 2021. "To Swing or Not to Swing: An Assessment of Age and Political Cynicism of Swing Voting," CREMA Working Paper Series 2021-24, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    16. Manja Coopmans, 2019. "Dutch Liberation Festivals: A Vehicle to More Politically Active Young Citizens, or Merely the Same Selective Audience?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 142(2), pages 617-643, April.
    17. Michaela Slotwinski & Alois Stutzer, 2023. "Women Leaving the Playpen: the Emancipating Role of Female Suffrage," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(650), pages 812-844.
    18. Sebastian Garmann, 2020. "Political efficacy and the persistence of turnout shocks," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 411-429, November.
    19. Jessen, Jonas & Kühnle, Daniel & Wagner, Markus, 2021. "Downstream Effects of Voting on Turnout and Political Preferences: Long-Run Evidence from the UK," IZA Discussion Papers 14296, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Kai Jäger, 2020. "When Do Campaign Effects Persist for Years? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(4), pages 836-851, October.

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