Business Cycle Recovery Gaining Shape. Economic Outlook for 2004 and 2005
AbstractEconomic growth in Austria is set to accelerate to 1.7 percent in real terms in 2004 and 2.4 percent in 2005. The major incentives for the moderate recovery are coming from the revival of world trade. A vigorous economic upturn has come under way in the USA and in Asia; spill-over effects to Europe will, however, be dampened by the appreciation of the euro vis-à-vis the dollar. In Austria, several indicators point to a pick-up in merchandise exports and manufacturing output. Growth of private household spending is reverting only gradually to its long-term trend. Domestic demand is sustained primarily by lively activity in civil engineering and a rebound of residential building. The cyclical recovery will not lead to a turnaround on the labour market towards lower unemployment, because of a marked increase in foreign labour supply. The improvement in private incomes and employment will boost tax revenues and narrow the general government deficit. The present projections make no allowance for tax cuts envisaged for 2005, which would lead to higher GDP growth and a higher budget deficit than presented in the baseline scenario.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by WIFO in its journal Quarterly.
Volume (Year): 9 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Other versions of this item:
- Markus Marterbauer, 2004. "Business Cycle Recovery Gaining Shape. Economic Outlook for 2004 and 2005," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 77(1), pages 17-19, January.
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ilse Schulz).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.