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Schätzung der Auswirkungen der Steuerreform 2015/16 auf die Wertschöpfung mit dem Modell FIDELIO

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  • Gerhard Streicher

Abstract

Die Simulation der Auswirkungen der Steuerreform 2015/16 auf die österreichische Wirtschaft mit dem ökonometrischen Input-Output-Modell FIDELIO ergibt (als ökonomische Gleichgewichtslösung) eine Steigerung der privaten Nachfrage um knapp 2,5 Mrd. €, eine Ausweitung der Wertschöpfung um 290 Mio. € und des Bruttoinlandsproduktes um 1,35 Mrd. €. Positive Effekte verzeichnen die Konsumbereiche mit hoher Einkommenselastizität: Wohnungswesen, Handel, Finanzdienstleistungen. Wegen der hohen Einkommenselastizität liefert die Modellsimulation auch für den Sektor "Beherbergung und Gastronomie" trotz Anhebung des Umsatzsteuersatzes und Registrierkassenpflicht keinen Rückgang, sondern sogar einen mäßigen Zugewinn. Aufgrund des hohen Importanteils ergeben sich in der Sachgütererzeugung – mit Ausnahme des Nahrungsmittelbereichs – nur geringe positive Effekte.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerhard Streicher, 2015. "Schätzung der Auswirkungen der Steuerreform 2015/16 auf die Wertschöpfung mit dem Modell FIDELIO," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(5), pages 417-424, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2015:i:5:p:417-424
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Silvia Rocha-Akis, 2015. "Verteilungseffekte der Einkommensteuerreform 2015/16," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(5), pages 387-398, May.
    2. Gerhard Streicher & Robert Stehrer, 2015. "Whither Panama? Constructing A Consistent And Balanced World Sut System Including International Trade And Transport Margins," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 213-237, June.
    3. José Manuel Rueda-Cantuche & Kurt Kratena & Gerhard Streicher & Frederik Neuwahl & Ignazio Mongelli & Jose M. Rueda-Cantuche & Aurelien Genty & Iñaki Arto & Valeria Andreoni, 2012. "FIDELIO: A fully interregional dynamic econometric long-term input-output model for the EU," EcoMod2012 4082, EcoMod.
    4. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski, 2015. "Steuerreform 2015/16 – Gesamtwirtschaftliche Wirkungen bis 2019," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(5), pages 399-416, May.
    5. Kurt Kratena & Gerhard Streicher & Umed Temurshoev & Antonio F. Amores & Iñaki Arto & Ignazio Mongelli & Frederik Neuwahl & José-Manuel Rueda-Cantuche & Valeria Andreoni, 2013. "FIDELIO 1: Fully Interregional Dynamic Econometric Long-term Input-Output Model for the EU 27," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46816, February.
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