There Will Be Growth in the Spring
AbstractForecasters are currently echoing Chauncey Gardnerâ€™s words that â€œThere will be growth in the springâ€. Or certainly by the summer. Are such forecasts credible? Yes. This article presents evidence that private sector forecasters have done a reasonably good job of forecasting recoveries in industrialised countries over the 1990s. Since recessions in these countries have tended to last under a year, forecasting a recovery in the following year has turned out to be a pretty good bet. However, a few recessions do end up lasting longer than a year: when that happens, the evidence suggests that forecasters are caught flat-footed.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE in its journal World Economics Journal.
Volume (Year): 3 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
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- Jonathan Temple, 2002.
"An Assessment of the New Economy,"
Bristol Economics Discussion Papers
02/542, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
- Prakash Loungani & Bharat Trehan, 2002. "Predicting when the economy will turn," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar 15.
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