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How Clear is the Crystal Ball?

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  • Prakash Loungani

Abstract

Two salie nt features of growth forecasts are discussed. First, recessions generally arrive before the forecast. Slowdowns are predicted but forecasters are unable or unwilling to call recessions. Second, private sector forecasts tend to be similar to those of official agencies. Some tips for forecast users are provided.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE in its journal World Economics Journal.

Volume (Year): 2 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 1-8

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Handle: RePEc:wej:wldecn:43

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Cited by:
  1. Michael Groemling, 2005. "Konjunkturprognosen – Verfahren, Erfolgskontrolle und Prognosefehler," Departmental Discussion Papers 123, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

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