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How Clear is the Crystal Ball?

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  • Prakash Loungani

Abstract

Two salie nt features of growth forecasts are discussed. First, recessions generally arrive before the forecast. Slowdowns are predicted but forecasters are unable or unwilling to call recessions. Second, private sector forecasts tend to be similar to those of official agencies. Some tips for forecast users are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Prakash Loungani, 2001. "How Clear is the Crystal Ball?," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 2(1), pages 1-8, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wej:wldecn:43
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    File URL: https://www.worldeconomics.com/Journal/Papers/Article.details?ID=43
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Groemling, 2005. "Konjunkturprognosen – Verfahren, Erfolgskontrolle und Prognosefehler," Departmental Discussion Papers 123, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    2. Grömling, Michael, 2002. "Konjunkturprognosen: Methoden, Risiken und Treffsicherheiten," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 29(2), pages 18-26.

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