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Konjunkturprognosen – Verfahren, Erfolgskontrolle und Prognosefehler

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  • Michael Groemling
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    Abstract

    The economic forecasts for Germany in the period 2001 to 2003 grossly missed reality. Forecasters estimated an average annual growth rate of 1.6 per cent, but real GDP actually grew by only 0.3 per cent per annum. In 2003 the real GDP in Germany even shrank by 0.1 per cent. Forecasters tend to be generally optimistic. The analysis of the forecasts in the years 1995 to 2004 shows nevertheless that they were for the most years fairly accurate. In addition, the article gives several arguments which may explain forecast errors: data revisions, unpredictable events, behavioural and political feedback and imitation behaviour of forecasters.

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    File URL: http://www2.vwl.wiso.uni-goettingen.de/departmentpaper/NO_123.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Goettingen, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Discussion Papers with number 123.

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    Length: 21
    Date of creation: 01 Jan 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:got:vwldps:123

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    Web page: http://www.economics.uni-goettingen.de
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    Related research

    Keywords: Forecasting; Forecast evaluation; Forecast error; Business cycles; Germany;

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    1. William D. Nordhaus, 1985. "Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 774, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Thomas Dalsgaard & Jørgen Elmeskov & Cyn-Young Park, 2002. "Ongoing changes in the business cycle - evidence and causes," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 20 edited by Morten Balling.
    3. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, 02.
    5. Dicke, Hugo & Glismann, Hans H., 2002. "Haben sich die Konjunkturprognosen des Sachverständigenrates verbessert?," Wirtschaftsdienst – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik (1998 - 2007), ZBW – German National Library of Economics / Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 82(12), pages 736-740.
    6. Friedrich Wu, 2001. "The Emerging Northeast–Southeast Asia Divide and Policy Implications," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 2(1), pages 169-180, January.
    7. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 1-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Owen Lamont, 1995. "Macroeconomics Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 5284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Giampiero M. Gallo & Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2002. "Copycats and Common Swings: The Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 2.
    10. Prakash Loungani, 2001. "How Clear is the Crystal Ball?," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 2(1), pages 1-8, January.
    11. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1989. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: A Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 28-61, March.
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