Konjunkturprognosen – Verfahren, Erfolgskontrolle und Prognosefehler
AbstractThe economic forecasts for Germany in the period 2001 to 2003 grossly missed reality. Forecasters estimated an average annual growth rate of 1.6 per cent, but real GDP actually grew by only 0.3 per cent per annum. In 2003 the real GDP in Germany even shrank by 0.1 per cent. Forecasters tend to be generally optimistic. The analysis of the forecasts in the years 1995 to 2004 shows nevertheless that they were for the most years fairly accurate. In addition, the article gives several arguments which may explain forecast errors: data revisions, unpredictable events, behavioural and political feedback and imitation behaviour of forecasters.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Goettingen, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Discussion Papers with number 123.
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2005
Date of revision:
Forecasting; Forecast evaluation; Forecast error; Business cycles; Germany;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lamont, Owen A., 2002.
"Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 265-280, July.
- Owen Lamont, 1995. "Macroeconomics Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 5284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995.
"Forecast evaluation and combination,"
9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Giampiero M. Gallo & Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2001.
"Copycats and Common Swings: the Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets,"
Econometrics Working Papers Archive
wp2001_01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
- Giampiero M. Gallo & Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2002. "Copycats and Common Swings: The Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 2.
- Prakash Loungani, 2001. "How Clear is the Crystal Ball?," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 2(1), pages 1-8, January.
- Dicke, Hugo & Glismann, Hans H., 2002. "Haben sich die Konjunkturprognosen des Sachverständigenrates verbessert?," Wirtschaftsdienst – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik (1998 - 2007), ZBW – German National Library of Economics / Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 82(12), pages 736-740.
- William D. Nordhaus, 1985.
"Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
774, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Thomas Dalsgaard & Jørgen Elmeskov & Cyn-Young Park, 2002.
"Ongoing changes in the business cycle - evidence and causes,"
SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 20 edited by Morten Balling, March.
- Thomas Dalsgaard & Jørgen Elmeskov & Cyn-Young Park, 2002. "Ongoing Changes in the Business Cycle – Evidence and Causes," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
- Thomas Dalsgaard & Jørgen Elmeskov & Cyn-Young Park, 2002. "Ongoing Changes in the Business Cycle: Evidence and Causes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 315, OECD Publishing.
- Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 1-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, 02.
- Wallis, Kenneth F, 1989. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: A Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 28-61, March.
- Friedrich Wu, 2001. "The Emerging Northeastâ€“Southeast Asia Divide and Policy Implications," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 2(1), pages 169-180, January.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ben Schroeter).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.