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What Could Brake China’s Rapid Ascent in the World Economy?

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  • Friedrich Wu
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    Abstract

    There has been much hype about China’s rapid ascent in the world economy. For instance, economists from Goldman Sachs and the OECD have predicted that the Chinese economy will overtake the Japanese and the US economies well before the mid–21st century. However, these optimistic, straight-line projections are based on extrapolations from past trends, without paying sufficient consideration to the many challenges that China must face going forward. This paper aims to balance this sanguine perspective by identifying a number of near-, medium-, and longer-term potential “growth-deceleratorsâ€â€”i.e., economic overheating, widening regional and rural–urban economic divides, banking sector fragility, environmental degradation, rampant corruption, an ageing population and military conflict with Taiwan—that could possibly brake China’s rapid ascent in the world economy. It also seeks to examine how these potential “growthdecelerators†would impact China’s future expansion trajectory.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE in its journal World Economics Journal.

    Volume (Year): 7 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 3 (July)
    Pages: 63-87

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    Handle: RePEc:wej:wldecn:249

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    Cited by:
    1. John Creedy, 2007. "Discounting and the Social Time Preference Rate," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 989, The University of Melbourne.
    2. William A. Pizer & David Popp, 2007. "Endogenizing Technological Change: Matching Empirical Evidence to Modeling Needs," NBER Working Papers 13053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2007. "Public Policies against Global Warming," CESifo Working Paper Series 2087, CESifo Group Munich.

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