IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/poicbe/v12y2018i1p171-181n17.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A portfolio optimization model for a large number of hydrocarbon exploration projects

Author

Listed:
  • Bulai Vlad-Cosmin

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Horobeț Alexandra

    (The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

Abstract

Over the past few years the global oil and gas industry has been going through a severe market downturn. Despite recent signs of stabilization, oil prices have a long history marked by volatility. In this context, it is imperative for oil companies to optimize their capital allocation, as this might support risk mitigation. The purpose of this paper is to offer a tool that might support the strategic decision-making process for companies operating in the oil industry. Our model uses Markowitz’ portfolio selection theory to construct the efficient frontier for currently producing fields and a set of investment projects. These relate to oil and gas exploration projects and projects aimed at enhancing current production. The net present value is obtained for each project under a set of usersupplied scenarios. For the base-case scenario we also model oil prices through Monte Carlo simulation. We run the model for a combination of portfolio items which include both currently producing assets and new exploration projects, using data characteristics of a mature region with a high number of low-production fields. Our objective is to find the vector of weights (equity stake in each project) which minimizes portfolio risk, given a set of expected portfolio returns. The model is of particular interest for companies operating in Eastern Europe, or in any other mature region. It can also support divestment and acquisition decisions since these may place the company’s portfolio closer or farther away from the efficient frontier. The model is highly versatile and can be implemented on any software with an optimization package such as Microsoft Excel.

Suggested Citation

  • Bulai Vlad-Cosmin & Horobeț Alexandra, 2018. "A portfolio optimization model for a large number of hydrocarbon exploration projects," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 12(1), pages 171-181, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:poicbe:v:12:y:2018:i:1:p:171-181:n:17
    DOI: 10.2478/picbe-2018-0017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2478/picbe-2018-0017
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2478/picbe-2018-0017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy M. Devinney & David W. Stewart, 1988. "Rethinking the Product Portfolio: A Generalized Investment Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(9), pages 1080-1095, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jin P. Gerlach & Ronald T. Cenfetelli, 2022. "Overcoming the Single-IS Paradigm in Individual-Level IS Research," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 33(2), pages 476-488, June.
    2. Bertrand, Jean-Louis & Brusset, Xavier & Fortin, Maxime, 2015. "Assessing and hedging the cost of unseasonal weather: Case of the apparel sector," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(1), pages 261-276.
    3. Brown, James R., 2010. "Managing the retail format portfolio: An application of modern portfolio theory," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 19-28.
    4. Rooderkerk, Robert P. & van Heerde, Harald J., 2016. "Robust optimization of the 0–1 knapsack problem: Balancing risk and return in assortment optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(3), pages 842-854.
    5. Hans H. Bauer & Marc Fischer, 2001. "Ein Ansatz zur simultanen Messung von Kannibalisierungs-, substitutiven Konkurrenz- und Neukäufereffekten am Beispiel von line extensions," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 53(5), pages 455-477, August.
    6. Frank Youhua Chen & Candace Arai Yano, 2010. "Improving Supply Chain Performance and Managing Risk Under Weather-Related Demand Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(8), pages 1380-1397, August.
    7. Kito, Tomomi & New, Steve & Reed-Tsochas, Felix, 2018. "Disentangling the complexity of supply relationship formations: Firm product diversification and product ubiquity in the Japanese car industry," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 159-168.
    8. Nippa, Michael, 2011. "Zur Notwendigkeit des Corporate Portfolio Management: Eine Würdigung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung der letzten vier Jahrzehnte," Freiberg Working Papers 2011/02, TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    9. Zhu, Qingyun & Dhavale, Dileep G. & Sarkis, Joseph & Wang, Xuan, 2023. "Formalizing organizational product deletion through strategic cross-functional evaluation: A Bayesian analysis approach," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:poicbe:v:12:y:2018:i:1:p:171-181:n:17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.