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An Imputation Model for Dropouts in Unemployment Data

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  • Nilsson Petra

    (Research and Evaluation, Swedish Public Employment Service, SE-113 99 Stockholm)

Abstract

Incomplete unemployment data is a fundamental problem when evaluating labour market policies in several countries. Many unemployment spells end for unknown reasons; in the Swedish Public Employment Service’s register as many as 20 percent. This leads to an ambiguity regarding destination states (employment, unemployment, retired, etc.). According to complete combined administrative data, the employment rate among dropouts was close to 50 for the years 1992 to 2006, but from 2007 the employment rate has dropped to 40 or less. This article explores an imputation approach. We investigate imputation models estimated both on survey data from 2005/2006 and on complete combined administrative data from 2005/2006 and 2011/2012. The models are evaluated in terms of their ability to make correct predictions. The models have relatively high predictive power.

Suggested Citation

  • Nilsson Petra, 2016. "An Imputation Model for Dropouts in Unemployment Data," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 32(3), pages 719-732, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:offsta:v:32:y:2016:i:3:p:719-732:n:8
    DOI: 10.1515/jos-2016-0036
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ralf Wilke, 2009. "Unemployment Duration in the United Kingdom: An Incomplete Data Approach," Discussion Papers 09/02, University of Nottingham, School of Economics.
    2. repec:iab:iabfme:200704(en is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Wilke, Ralf A. & Lo, Simon M. S. & Arntz, Melanie, 2007. "Bounds Analysis of Competing Risks: A Nonparametric Evaluation of the Effect of Unemployment Benefits on Imigration in Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-049, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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