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Selected Econometric Methods of Modelling the World’s Population

Author

Listed:
  • Rzymowski Witold
  • Surowiec Agnieszka

    (Lublin University of Technology, Lublin, Poland)

Abstract

Selected econometric methods of modelling the world’s population size based on historical data are presented in the paper. Periodical variables were used in the models proposed in the paper. Moreover, a logistic-type function was used in modelling. The purpose of the paper was to obtain a model describing the world’s population with the lowest possible maximal relative error and possibly the longest period of durability. In this work, 13,244 models from three families models were analyzed. Only a small part of such a large number of models satisfies the conditions of stability. The method of modelling the world’s population size allows to obtain models with maximal relative errors not exceeding 0.5%. Selected models were used to prediction of the world’s population up to 2050. The obtained results were compared with data published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Suggested Citation

  • Rzymowski Witold & Surowiec Agnieszka, 2018. "Selected Econometric Methods of Modelling the World’s Population," Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis, Sciendo, vol. 22(2), pages 34-44, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:eaiada:v:22:y:2018:i:2:p:34-44:n:3
    DOI: 10.15611/eada.2018.2.03
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Kani & Guo, Shaojun & Lin, Yuanyuan & Ying, Zhiliang, 2010. "Least Absolute Relative Error Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(491), pages 1104-1112.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    nonlinear models; estimation; maximal relative error; population; forecast;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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