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Timberland Investment under Both Financial and Biophysical Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Bin Mei
  • David N. Wear
  • Jesse D. Henderson

Abstract

We extend real options analysis of timberland investments to examine a combination of financial and biophysical risk effects on optimal investment strategies in the southeastern United States. Results show that, despite a slight downward drift in price, expected returns for loblolly pine management fall between entry and exit thresholds, indicating an optimal “hold†strategy. This is explained by an offsetting upward trend in biophysical productivity associated with climate changes across a range of modeled futures. Monte Carlo analysis indicates a small positive difference between entry and exit outcomes consistent with observed rates of expansion in timberland investments in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Bin Mei & David N. Wear & Jesse D. Henderson, 2019. "Timberland Investment under Both Financial and Biophysical Risk," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 95(2), pages 279-291.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:landec:v:95:y:2019:i:2:p:279-291
    Note: DOI: 10.3368/le.95.2.279
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mei, Bin, 2019. "Timberland investments in the United States: A review and prospects," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    2. Henderson, Jesse D. & Abt, Robert C. & Abt, Karen L. & Baker, Justin & Sheffield, Ray, 2022. "Impacts of hurricanes on forest markets and economic welfare: The case of hurricane Michael," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Henderson, Jesse D. & Parajuli, Rajan & Abt, Robert C., 2020. "Biological and market responses of pine forests in the US Southeast to carbon fertilization," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    4. Chudy, R.P. & Chudy, K.A. & Kanieski da Silva, B. & Cubbage, F.W. & Rubilar, R. & Lord, R., 2020. "Profitability and risk sources in global timberland investments," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry

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