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Declining Outmigration and Local Labor Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Emily Conover
  • Melanie Khamis
  • Sarah Pearlman

Abstract

We estimate the effects of the unprecedented decline in Mexican net migration from 2006 to 2012 on labor markets in Mexico. We employ an instrumental variable strategy that isolates demand for Mexican labor in the United States and relies on historical migration patterns. We find that lower-educated groups are more affected by the labor supply shock and remittance decline. The labor supply shock also generated declines in self-employment and increases in salaried work for lower and highly educated groups, indicating impacts beyond the would-be migrant group. Our findings are relevant in a global context where migration restrictions are more prevalent.

Suggested Citation

  • Emily Conover & Melanie Khamis & Sarah Pearlman, 2023. "Declining Outmigration and Local Labor Markets," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(6), pages 1948-1973.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:58:y:2023:i:6:p:1948-1973
    Note: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.1219-10616R3
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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