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A Positive Model of Earnings Forecasts: Top Down versus Bottom Up

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Author Info
Masako N. Darrough (Baruch College, CUNY)
Abstract

This article analyzes the behavior of two groups of corporate earnings forecasters: analysts, who follow individual company fortunes, and market strategists, who predict earnings for various company aggregates. Using data for two market indices, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we document that bottom-up forecasts are systematically more optimistic than top-down forecasts made by strategists. This difference is not driven by the difference in the forecast target. This finding may be explained by the incentives that analysts face and/or by cognitive bias.

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File URL: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/cgi-bin/resolve?JB750105
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Publisher Info
Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Business.

Volume (Year): 75 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 127-152
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:75:y:2002:i:1:p:127-152

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  1. Elyès Jouini & Selima Ben Mansour & Clotilde Napp, 2006. "Is There a Pessimistic Bias in Individual Beliefs? Evidence from a Simple Survey," Post-Print halshs-00176518_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Selima Mansour & Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2006. "Is There a “Pessimisticâ€\x9D Bias in Individual Beliefs? Evidence from a Simple Survey," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 345-362, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ronald Doeswijk, 2008. "The Optimism Cycle: Sell in May," De Economist, Springer, vol. 156(2), pages 175-200, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-6.

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