The Coming Demographic Impact on China's Growth: The Age Factor in the Middle-Income Trap
AbstractThanks to successful economic growth, social development, and strict implementation of family planning policies, the demographic transition in China has been accomplished at a much earlier stage of development than in other countries. I call this outcome “aging before affluence.” As a result of this demographic transition, China has already passed through its Lewis turning point, and its demographic dividend from the decline in the population dependence ratio is about to end. I identify a potential nexus between “aging before affluence” and the “middle-income trap.” China is losing comparative advantage in labor-intensive industries, but China is not ready to gain comparative advantage in technology-intensive and capital-intensive industries. For China to avoid the middle-income trap, it must (1) transform economic growth to a consumption-driven pattern; (2) shift the labor-intensive industries to the central and western regions; and (3) speed up technological catching up. © 2012 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by MIT Press in its journal Asian Economic Papers.
Volume (Year): 11 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
- O15 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Françoise Lemoine, 2013. "From foreign trade to international investment: a new step in China’s integration with the world economy," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 25-43, March.
- Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2012. "Gender 'Rebalancing' in China: A Global-Level Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2012-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Karie Kirkpatrick).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.