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The History of the Transport Future—Evaluating Dutch Transport Scenarios of the Past

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  • Jan Anne Annema
  • Mig De Jong

Abstract

This paper examines 42 business‐as‐usual (BAU) scenarios for future transport and traffic development in the Netherlands from the period 1970 to 2000. An important aspect of these scenarios is that they indicate the potential future state of the transport system if the policies in place at the time continue unchanged, thus raising issues which may require a policy response. This paper shows that in most of the important BAU transport scenario results of the past in the Netherlands, such as future car use and transport emissions, the policy makers were not misled. The prognoses for traffic congestion are an important exception as they underestimated the congestion problems that would arise. This paper shows that, based on the research it examines, BAU transport forecasting is an inaccurate practice. It is recommended that the BAU scenario designer communicates this high inaccuracy, enabling the policy maker to include the inherent future uncertainty in their decision‐making.

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  • Jan Anne Annema & Mig De Jong, 2011. "The History of the Transport Future—Evaluating Dutch Transport Scenarios of the Past," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 341-356.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:transr:v:31:y:2011:i:3:p:341-356
    DOI: 10.1080/01441647.2010.527440
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    Cited by:

    1. Sander Van Cranenburgh & Caspar Chorus & Bert Van Wee, 2012. "Substantial Changes and Their Impact on Mobility: A Typology and an Overview of the Literature," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(5), pages 569-597, June.
    2. van Cranenburgh, Sander & Chorus, Caspar G., 2018. "Does the decision rule matter for large-scale transport models?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 114(PB), pages 338-353.
    3. David Milesi-Gaches, 2021. "Did research address the pandemic, epidemic or infectious risk in public transport scenarios? A systematic review to rethink future environmental implications for mobility [La recherche a-t-elle ab," Working Papers hal-03494239, HAL.

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