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National GHG emissions reduction pledges and 2°C: comparison of studies

Author

Listed:
  • Niklas H�hne
  • Christopher Taylor
  • Ramzi Elias
  • Michel Den Elzen
  • Keywan Riahi
  • Claudine Chen
  • Joeri Rogelj
  • Giacomo Grassi
  • Fabian Wagner
  • Kelly Levin
  • Emanuele Massetti
  • Zhao Xiusheng

Abstract

This article provides further detail on expected global GHG emission levels in 2020, based on the Emissions Gap Report (United Nations Environment Programme, December 2010), assuming the emission reduction proposals in the Copenhagen Accord and Cancun Agreements are met. Large differences are found in the results of individual groups owing to uncertainties in current and projected emission estimates and in the interpretation of the reduction proposals. Regardless of these uncertainties, the pledges for 2020 are expected to deliver emission levels above those that are consistent with a 2°C limit. This emissions gap could be narrowed through implementing the more stringent conditional pledges, minimizing the use of 'lenient' credits from forests and surplus emission units, avoiding double-counting of offsets and implementing measures beyond current pledges. Conversely, emission reduction gains from countries moving from their low to high ambition pledges could be more than offset by the use of 'lenient' land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) credits and surplus emissions units, if these were used to the maximum. Laying the groundwork for faster emission reduction rates after 2020 appears to be crucial in any case.

Suggested Citation

  • Niklas H�hne & Christopher Taylor & Ramzi Elias & Michel Den Elzen & Keywan Riahi & Claudine Chen & Joeri Rogelj & Giacomo Grassi & Fabian Wagner & Kelly Levin & Emanuele Massetti & Zhao Xiusheng, 2012. "National GHG emissions reduction pledges and 2°C: comparison of studies," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 356-377, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:tcpoxx:v:12:y:2012:i:3:p:356-377
    DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2011.637818
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Joachim Schleich & Claudia Schwirplies & Andreas Ziegler, 2014. "Private provision of public goods: Do individual climate protection efforts depend on perceptions of climate policy?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201453, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    2. Vicki Duscha & Katja Schumacher & Joachim Schleich & Pierre Buisson, 2014. "Costs of meeting international climate targets without nuclear power," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 327-352, May.
    3. Riahi, Keywan & Kriegler, Elmar & Johnson, Nils & Bertram, Christoph & den Elzen, Michel & Eom, Jiyong & Schaeffer, Michiel & Edmonds, Jae & Isaac, Morna & Krey, Volker & Longden, Thomas & Luderer, Gu, 2015. "Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 8-23.
    4. Schleich, Joachim & Faure, Corinne, 2017. "Explaining citizens’ perceptions of international climate-policy relevance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 62-71.
    5. Katarina Buhr & Susanna Roth & Peter Stigson, 2014. "Climate Change Politics through a Global Pledge-and-Review Regime: Positions among Negotiators and Stakeholders," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-18, February.
    6. van der Zwaan, Bob & Keppo, Ilkka & Johnsson, Filip, 2013. "How to decarbonize the transport sector?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 562-573.

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