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A survival analysis of the last great European plagues: The case of Nonantola (Northern Italy) in 1630

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  • Guido Alfani
  • Marco Bonetti

Abstract

This paper develops the first survival analysis of a large-scale mortality crisis caused by plague. For the time-to-event analyses we used the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Our case study is the town of Nonantola during the 1630 plague, which was probably the worst to affect Italy since the Black Death. Individual risk of death did not depend on sex, grew with age (peaking at ages 40–60 and then declining), was not affected by socio-economic status, and was positively associated with household size. We discuss these findings in light of the historical–demographic and palaeo-demographic literature on medieval and early modern plagues. Our results are compatible with the debated idea that ancient plague was able to spread directly from human to human. Our methods could be replicated in other studies of European plagues to nuance and integrate the findings of recent palaeo-biological and palaeo-demographic research on plague.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Alfani & Marco Bonetti, 2019. "A survival analysis of the last great European plagues: The case of Nonantola (Northern Italy) in 1630," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(1), pages 101-118, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:1:p:101-118
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1457794
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre Galanaud & Anne Galanaud & Patrick Giraudoux & Henri Labesse, 2020. "Mortality and demographic recovery in early post-black death epidemics: Role of recent emigrants in medieval Dijon," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-20, January.
    2. Jedwab, Remi & Khan, Amjad M. & Russ, Jason & Zaveri, Esha D., 2021. "Epidemics, pandemics, and social conflict: Lessons from the past and possible scenarios for COVID-19," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    3. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2021. "The Repeated Setbacks of HIV Vaccine Development Laid the Groundwork for SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines," NBER Working Papers 28587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Tommy Bengtsson & Martin Dribe & Jonas Helgertz, 2020. "When Did the Health Gradient Emerge? Social Class and Adult Mortality in Southern Sweden, 1813–2015," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(3), pages 953-977, June.
    5. Remi Jedwab & Amjad M. Khan & Richard Damania & Jason Russ & Esha D. Zaveri, 2020. "Pandemics, Poverty, and Social Cohesion: Lessons from the Past and Possible Solutions for COVID-19," Working Papers 2020-13, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    6. Paul Slack, 2022. "Perceptions of plague in eighteenth‐century Europe," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(1), pages 138-156, February.
    7. Fabian Siuda & Uwe Sunde, 2021. "Disease and demographic development: the legacy of the plague," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 1-30, March.

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