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Measuring Welfare Changes in Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling: Accounting for the Random Utility Component

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  • John Creedy
  • Nicolas Hérault
  • Guyonne Kalb

Abstract

This paper presents a method of predicting individuals' welfare changes (compensating and equivalent variations) arising from a tax or social security policy change in the context of behavioural microsimulation modelling, where individuals can choose between a limited number of discrete hours of work. The method allows fully for the nonlinearity of the budget constraint facing each individual, the probabilistic nature of the labour supply model and the presence of unobserved heterogeneity in the estimation of preference functions. Yet it is relatively straightforward to implement. An advantage of welfare measures, compared with changes in net incomes, is that they take into account the value of leisure and home production. The method is applied to a hypothetical income tax policy change in Australia.

Suggested Citation

  • John Creedy & Nicolas Hérault & Guyonne Kalb, 2011. "Measuring Welfare Changes in Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling: Accounting for the Random Utility Component," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 5-34, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:recsxx:v:14:y:2011:i:1:p:5-34
    DOI: 10.1016/S1514-0326(11)60003-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Thor O. Thoresen & Zhiyang Jia & Peter J. Lambert, 2013. "Distributional benchmarking in tax policy evaluations," Discussion Papers 765, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    2. John Creedy & Nicolas Hérault†, 2011. "Decomposing Inequality and Social Welfare Changes : The Use of Alternative Welfare Metrics," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1121, The University of Melbourne.
    3. Nazila Alinaghi & John Creedy & Norman Gemmell, 2020. "The Redistributive Effects of a Minimum Wage Increase in New Zealand: A Microsimulation Analysis," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 53(4), pages 517-538, December.
    4. Fischer, Benjamin & Jessen, Robin & Steiner, Viktor, 2019. "Work incentives and the cost of redistribution via tax-transfer reforms under constrained labor supply," Discussion Papers 2019/10, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    5. Iris Claus & John Creedy & Josh Teng, 2012. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income in New Zealand," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 287-303, September.
    6. Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman & Hérault, Nicolas & Mok, Penny, 2018. "Microsimulation Analysis of Optimal Income Tax Reforms. An Application to New Zealand," GLO Discussion Paper Series 213, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    7. John Creedy, 2017. "The Optimal Threshold for GST on Imported Goods," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 50(2), pages 169-180, June.
    8. Bernard Fortin & Nicolas Jacquemet & Bruce Shearer, 2021. "Labour supply, service intensity, and contracts: Theory and evidence on physicians," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 686-702, September.
    9. John Creedy & Penny Mok, 2018. "The marginal welfare cost of personal income taxation in New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(3), pages 323-338, September.
    10. Nazila Alinaghi & John Creedy & Norman Gemmell, 2021. "Designing Personal Income Tax and Transfer Reforms: Alternative Modelling Approaches," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 54(4), pages 445-461, December.
    11. Ray Rees & Thor O. Thoresen & Trine E. Vattø, 2023. "Alternatives to Paying Child Benefit to the Rich: Means‐Testing or Higher Tax?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(3), pages 328-354, September.
    12. John Creedy & Nicolas Hérault†, 2011. "Decomposing Inequality and Social Welfare Changes : The Use of Alternative Welfare Metrics," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1121, The University of Melbourne.
    13. Shun-ichiro Bessho & Masayoshi Hayashi, 2015. "Should the Japanese tax system be more progressive? An evaluation using the simulated SMCFs based on the discrete choice model of labor supply," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 22(1), pages 144-175, February.
    14. John Creedy & Norman Gemmell & Nicolas Hérault & Penny Mok, 2020. "A microsimulation analysis of marginal welfare-improving income tax reforms for New Zealand," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(2), pages 409-434, April.
    15. John Creedy & Penny Mok, 2018. "The marginal welfare cost of personal income taxation in New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(3), pages 323-338, September.
    16. Alinaghi, Nazila & Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2020. "Designing Direct Tax Reforms: Alternative Approaches," Working Paper Series 9338, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    17. Erwin Ooghe & Erik Schokkaert & Hannes Serruys, 2023. "Fair Earnings Tax Reforms," CESifo Working Paper Series 10242, CESifo.
    18. Nazila Alinaghi & John Creedy & Norman Gemmell, 2020. "The Redistributive Effects of a Minimum Wage Increase in New Zealand: A Microsimulation Analysis," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 53(4), pages 517-538, December.
    19. Thor O. Thoresen & Zhiyang Jia & Peter J. Lambert, 2016. "Is there More Redistribution Now? A Review of Methods for Evaluating Tax Redistributional Effects," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 72(3), pages 302-333, September.
    20. Iris Claus & John Creedy & Josh Teng, 2012. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income in New Zealand," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 287-303, September.
    21. Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman & Hérault, Nicolas & Mok, Penny, 2018. "Microsimulation Analysis of Optimal Income Tax Reforms. An Application to New Zealand," GLO Discussion Paper Series 213, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    22. Alinaghi, Nazila & Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2020. "Designing Direct Tax Reforms: Alternative Approaches," Working Paper Series 21093, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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