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The bulk shipping business: market cycles and shipowners’ biases

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  • Roberta Scarsi

Abstract

Despite a strong linkage with the macro-economic course, the bulk shipping market, in the short period, follows a typical cyclic pattern, where continuous freight adjustments balance demand and supply movements. In this context—widely unstable but quite regular in its general scheme—the shipowners may have enough competencies and information to take logical and consistent decisions about ship purchasing and chartering. Yet, why do they periodically make mistakes? The analysis of shipowners’ behaviour provides a reasonable answer: mistakes incur when they ignore or undervalue the market trends, following their personal intuition or even unwisely imitating their competitors. The analysis of the Handysize segment among the bulk shipping business offers a significant example of the lack of timeliness in shipowners' behaviour: after a long period of disregard, operators began to notice the opportunities of this market niche and they are now heavily investing in minor units. Maybe it's not too late, but the market has already changed and only a few brave—or lucky—shipowners took advantage of the magic moment.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberta Scarsi, 2007. "The bulk shipping business: market cycles and shipowners’ biases," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6), pages 577-590, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:marpmg:v:34:y:2007:i:6:p:577-590
    DOI: 10.1080/03088830701695305
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nektarios A. Michail & Konstantinos D. Melas, 2021. "Sentiment-Augmented Supply and Demand Equations for the Dry Bulk Shipping Market," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-14, November.
    2. Alexandridis, George & Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Kim, Chi Y. & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A. & Visvikis, Ilias D., 2018. "A survey of shipping finance research: Setting the future research agenda," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 164-212.
    3. Spaniol, Matthew J. & Rowland, Nicholas J., 2022. "Business ecosystems and the view from the future: The use of corporate foresight by stakeholders of the Ro-Ro shipping ecosystem in the Baltic Sea Region," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    4. d'Amore-Domenech, Rafael & Leo, Teresa J. & Pollet, Bruno G., 2021. "Bulk power transmission at sea: Life cycle cost comparison of electricity and hydrogen as energy vectors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    5. Xueni Gou & Jasmine Siu Lee Lam, 2019. "Risk analysis of marine cargoes and major port disruptions," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 21(4), pages 497-523, December.
    6. Yang, Zhongzhen & Jiang, Zhenfeng & Notteboom, Theo & Haralambides, Hercules, 2019. "The impact of ship scrapping subsidies on fleet renewal decisions in dry bulk shipping," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 177-189.
    7. Konstantinos N. Konstantakis & Theofanis Papageorgiou & Apostolos G. Christopoulos & Ioannis G. Dokas & Panayotis G. Michaelides, 2019. "Business cycles in Greek maritime transport: an econometric exploration (1998–2015)," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 1059-1079, December.
    8. Thanasis Karlis & Dionysios Polemis & Anastasios Georgakis, 2016. "Ship demolition activity. An evaluation of the effect of currency exchange rates on ship scrap values," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(3), pages 53-70, July-Sept.
    9. Fan, Lixian & Gu, Bingmei & Yin, Jingbo, 2021. "Investment incentive analysis for second-hand vessels," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 215-225.
    10. Athanasios A. Pallis & Francesco Parola & Michele Acciaro, 2017. "Empirical methods in the study of maritime economics," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(2), pages 189-195, June.
    11. N.D. Geomelos & E. Xideas, 2014. "Forecasting spot prices in bulk shipping using multivariate and univariate models," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-37, December.
    12. Kotcharin, Suntichai & Maneenop, Sakkakom, 2020. "Geopolitical risk and corporate cash holdings in the shipping industry," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    13. Keun-Sik Park & Young-Joon Seo & A-Rom Kim & Min-Ho Ha, 2018. "Ship Acquisition of Shipping Companies by Sale & Purchase Activities for Sustainable Growth: Exploratory Fuzzy-AHP Application," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-13, May.
    14. Dinwoodie, John & Landamore, Melanie & Rigot-Muller, Patrick, 2014. "Dry bulk shipping flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of early career specialists," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 64-75.

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