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Prediction versus accommodation in economics

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  • Robert Northcott

Abstract

Should we insist on prediction, i.e. on correctly forecasting the future? Or can we rest content with accommodation, i.e. empirical success only with respect to the past? I apply general considerations about this issue to the case of economics. In particular, I examine various ways in which mere accommodation can be sufficient, in order to see whether those ways apply to economics. Two conclusions result. First, an entanglement thesis: the need for prediction is entangled with the methodological role of orthodox economic theory. Second, a conditional predictivism: if we are not committed to orthodox economic theory, then (often) we should demand prediction rather than accommodation – against most current practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Northcott, 2019. "Prediction versus accommodation in economics," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 59-69, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jecmet:v:26:y:2019:i:1:p:59-69
    DOI: 10.1080/1350178X.2018.1561080
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    Cited by:

    1. Glotin, David & Bourgeois, Cyril & Giraudet, Louis-Gaëtan & Quirion, Philippe, 2019. "Prediction is difficult, even when it's about the past: A hindcast experiment using Res-IRF, an integrated energy-economy model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(S1).

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