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The Impact of Institutional Coup-Proofing on Coup Attempts and Coup Outcomes

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  • Tobias Böhmelt
  • Ulrich Pilster

Abstract

Coup-proofing pertains to political leaders’ strategies that will prevent groups inside or outside the state apparatus from seizing power via a coup d’état. One particular form of these strategies divides a country’s military into rivaling organizations, thereby creating an artificial balance between and structural obstacles for the armed forces. Despite the general claim that this institutional coup-proofing is indeed effective, a recent empirical study does not obtain evidence for a negative impact on the risk of coup attempts or coup outcomes. The authors take this finding as a motivation for their re-evaluation of the effect of institutional coup-proofing on coup risk and outcomes. By developing an argument that rests on the concepts of collective action and polarization, it is contended that institutional coup-proofing and coups are characterized by a U-shaped relationship: Institutional coup-proofing is likely to lower the likelihood of coup onsets and successful outcomes, yet only until a tipping point of about two equally strong military organizations. After this turning point, the risk of coup onset as well as coup success may increase again. Using time-series cross-section data for 1975--1999, the authors find strong and robust support for their claims in terms of coup onset, but not coup outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Böhmelt & Ulrich Pilster, 2015. "The Impact of Institutional Coup-Proofing on Coup Attempts and Coup Outcomes," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 158-182, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:41:y:2015:i:1:p:158-182
    DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2014.906411
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Gassebner & Jerg Gutmann & Stefan Voigt, 2016. "When to expect a coup d’état? An extreme bounds analysis of coup determinants," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 293-313, December.
    2. Roya Izadi, 2022. "State Security or Exploitation: A Theory of Military Involvement in the Economy," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 66(4-5), pages 729-754, May.
    3. Bjørnskov, Christian & Pfaff, Katharina, 2021. "Differences matter: The effect of coup types on physical integrity rights," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    4. Erica De Bruin, 2021. "Mapping coercive institutions: The State Security Forces dataset, 1960–2010," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(2), pages 315-325, March.
    5. Erica De Bruin, 2018. "Preventing Coups d’état," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(7), pages 1433-1458, August.

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